We are in Week Lucky #7 of the college football season, and I would be remiss to not take advantage.
IT’S PARLAY WEEK
SportsBook 101: A parlay is a combination of wagers that combine to give the total wager better odds in return for picking all games within a set perfectly.
Bettors love parlays because the total amount that they stand to win increases significantly.
SportsBooks love parlays even more because it forces the bettor to be perfect.
Short story: Your chances of winning the bet go down, but your payout goes up.
Chances don’t matter to us this week. We are unstoppable.
Note: It is a personal rule to only bet moneyline parlays, so all games below are straight up.
Parlay #1 aka “The Ex-Girlfriends”
Make money by picking teams who hurt you in the past.
Texas A&M at South Carolina - We lead off with what will likely be the tightest game of the group. Texas A&M has impressed me. Mond has improved significantly since last season, and I just think this offense will be too much for USC. South Carolina is coming off a nail-biter vs Mizzou, and I’m not sure they can keep two strong offenses at bay in consecutive weeks.
West Virginia at Iowa State - The Mountaineers might just be good. Yes, I know Ames is weird, but even if WVU has a less than stellar offensive showing I have severe doubts that Matt Campbell can find lightning in yet another bottle with Brock Purdy and/or with an even more obscure quarterback name.
Oklahoma State at Kansas State - Kansas State might have the Butt Award from last week. They might just be butt. If Oklahoma State can <checks notes> prevent 50-yard runs up the middle, Cowboys win by 14+.
Parlay #2 aka “Offensive or Offensive?”
The winners here will either score ALL points or NO points.
Purdue at Illinois: Illinois is part of the Butt Club. Yes they beat Rutgers. Cool. But the Illini are also 93rd in the nation in yards per pass play allowed. Purdue does throwing ball real good.
UCF @ Memphis: Memphis is no slouch, but UCF has the defensive edge here to swing the game. This is Central Florida’s last big obstacle in the way of second consecutive undefeated season, and I think they’ll be up to the challenge.
(Over 60.5) Texas Tech @ TCU: I pondered over this game for a good long while, but I have no idea who comes away with the win. I do know that there will be POINTS. Take the over, as I see this game easily in the 30’s for each team.
The Baylor Bet
This is tough. Every fiber of my being hates the thought of picking Texas to win at anything. A lot of my being wants to make money. Another good percentage of me wants to balance the two.
Texas right now is favored by 14. I can see across multiple universes, and there are a few where Texas is just not mentally riled up for this game and Baylor catches them sleeping.
In one universe Baylor beats Texas at their best.
In a surprising amount of those realms, Texas gets out to a large lead in the first half. Baylor then climbs back into it and makes the game very close and winnable in the 4th Quarter.
Unfortunately, in the large majority of simulations, the difference in line play shows itself across the board and Texas wins by 10-17.
The safe bet here is the Texas money line, but I can’t bring myself to do it.