FanPost

Air War: Charting Every Pass, Every Game

Jamie Squire/Getty Images

It's fall break at my university, which gave me time to work on a project that I thought ODBers would be interested in seeing, namely a series of charts which plot every pass thrown this season. I'd wanted to get this out earlier in the week, but I kept adding details . . . In addition to the usual zones (L, R, M and 20+, 10-19, 1-9, 0 or less), I also noted the targeted receiver, the point at which the ball reached the target, and the total yards resulting from the play. Just to make things more interesting, I also made notes for the results:

  • Inc - incomplete, catchable but not perfectly thrown
  • Bad - Bad Pass
  • PI - Pass Interference
  • MisCom - Miscommunication
  • INT - Interception
  • OP - Offensive Penalty
  • DP - Defensive Penalty
  • Tip - Tipped Ball
  • OB - Out of Bounds
  • Italics - Stidham
  • and our favorite play: TD

You've seen a ton of stats, but full charts are something different (and they look amazingly better in color, but I don't know how to make that happen here). They give us an idea of distribution, productivity, and perhaps even a couple of insights into tendencies (or the design of this year's offensive machine).

Overall. First, let's take a look at the summary charts for the first five games. The yardage isn't perfectly reconciled to the official stats, but it is very close.

Official Stats through 5 games.

Comp

Att

Yards

YPC

YPT

TD

Int

105

156

1837

17.5

11.8

26

5

Zone

C

A

YD

YC

YT

TD-INT

C

A

YD

YC

YT

TD-INT

C

A

YD

YC

YT

TD-INT

20+

8

17

317

39.6

18.7

5-0

5

9

176

35.2

19.5

4-0

4

13

176

44.0

13.5

3-2

10-19

4

7

65

16.2

9.2

1-1

13

19

291

22.3

15.3

4-1

5

8

155

31.0

19.4

0-0

1-9

14

19

187

13.4

9.8

3-1

12

18

163

13.6

9.1

3-0

19

25

145

7.6

5.8

1-0

Neg - 0

13

14

100

7.7

7.1

2-0

0

0

0

0

0

0-0

6

6

29

4.8

4.8

0-0

39

57

669

17.1

11.7

11-2

30

46

630

21.0

13.7

11-1

34

52

505

14.9

9.7

4-2

Air Raid-Shmare Raid. The first thing that stood out to me was confirmation of what we already know to be true--this is not Air Raid offense. When I checked out Tech's first half throws last week, almost a third of them were thrown to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage. Baylor has thrown only 13% of its passes in that same range, and half of those were thrown by Stidham in limited playing time. When Russell is at the helm, only 7% of the throws are at or behind the line. So next time you hear your SEC friend (you have those, right?) talk about our Air Raid attack, drop a couple of numbers on them and pray they have the football IQ to understand what you're saying.

Intermediate Math. Remember when we complained about Petty not throwing the intermediate routes across the middle? I don't blame you if you've put that behind you given Russell's willingness to thread the ball into some tight spaces between the hashes--which he's done for a 68% completion rate:

10-19 yards, middle of field

C

A

YD

YC

YT

TD-INT

13

19

291

22.3

15.3

4-1

Extend that back to the shorter routes (often slants), and you , 19 of our 37 intermediate targets (51%) went to receivers in the middle of the field for a 68% completion rate. I didn't distinguish between seam and crossing/slant patterns, but in addition to 7 throws to the tight ends in the seam (the only place they see the ball), a lot of those targets are to receivers making some sort of lateral move. Better yet, despite our fears, only one interception was on a throw across the middle!

1-19, middle of field

C

A

YD

YC

YT

TD-INT

25

37

454

18.6

12.2

7-1

Distribution. In addition, if you take out our handful of at-scrimmage throws (I don't think we'll ever see a middle screen or shovel pass in this offense), you'll find the ball evenly distributed across the field:

Left

Center

Right

43

46

46

Even including the short tosses, the distribution is:

C

A

YD

YC

YT

TD-INT

C

A

YD

YC

YT

TD-INT

C

A

YD

YC

YT

TD-INT

39

57

669

17.1

11.7

11-2

30

46

630

21.0

13.7

11-1

34

52

505

14.9

9.7

4-2

I'm sure that we have tendencies by down and distance, but you have to like that sort of distribution. Looking at the question in terms of depth we find:

Zone

C

Att

YD

YC

YT

TD-INT

20+

17

39

669

39.3

17.2

13-2

10-19

22

34

511

23.2

15.0

5-2

1-9

45

62

495

11.0

7.9

7-1

Neg -0

19

20

129

6.8

6.5

1-0

And, again, half the very short throws are by Stidham when the game is in hand. I suspect that's an attempt to get him throwing the ball without running up the score. Stidham tends to throw short and left, Russell goes short and right. Oh, and they doesn't miss very often at close range, do they?

Money. Q. What our favorite play? A. The touchdown play. Even better, the deep ball--and 20+ yard targets were 50% of our money balls (another 4 shorter targets ended up as 20+ yard scores, raising that total to an impressive 65%). We also tend to have a hard time finding the end zone on the right side of the field, but then again, guess what side of the field Corey Coleman plays on . . . did you guess correctly? I thought you did. Only 3 of Coleman's catches are right of the hashes (and one of those was a touchdown).

Left

Center

Right

11 TD

11 TD

4 TD

Want More? I've just scratched the surface with the notes above. Below you will find the detailed, game-by-game stats. I would love to hear what you see (or what you'd like to see)!

Baylor-SMU

Sept. 20, 2015

Comp

Att

Yards

YPC

YPT

TD

Int

17

31

423

24.9

13.6

6

1

Zone

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

C/A/Yds

20+

01

42

42

09

45

Bad

09

23

Bad

01

31

Inc/OB

01

45

PBU

09

36

36.TD

01

28

Inc/OB

14

20

Bad

09

48

56

14

42

42.TD

04

20

42.TD

02/04/84

00/03/00

03/04/134

5/11/218

42.0 ypc

0.0 ypc

44.7 ypc

43.6 ypc

21.0 ypt

0.0 ypt

33.5 ypt

19.8 ypt

Zone

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

10-19

01

18

65

04

10

18 OP

09

18

Bad

04

12

Tip

04

19

INT

na

01/03/65

00/01/00

1/4/65

65.0 ypc

65.0 ypc

21.7 ypt

16.3 ypt

Zone

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

1-9

01

04

57.TD

01

08

Inc

07

04

06

01

02

08

01

07

11

09

09

11

04

09

Drop

04

03

Drop

14

04

04

04

09

Inc

04

05

06.TD

16

03

09

41

07

Tip

16

01

Drop

04

07

22.TD

02/02/65

04/07/43

03/06/26

9/15/134

32.5 ypc

10.8 ypc

8.7 ypc

14.5 ypc

32.5 ypt

6.1 ypt

4.3 ypt

8.9 ypt

Zone

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

Neg-0

01

(01)

(02) OP

28

(05)

05

08

(02)

07 OP

na

na

1/1/5

1/1/5

5.0 ypc

5.0 ypc

5.0 ypt

5.0 ypt

C/A/Yds

4/6/149

5/13/108

7/12/165

37.3 ypc

21.6 ypc

23.5 ypc

24.8 ypt

8.3 ypt

13.8 ypt

Baylor-Lamar

Sept. 12, 2015

Comp

Att

Yards

YPC

TD

Int

26

38

373

14.3

4

3

Zone

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

C/A/Yds

20+

01

24

Bad

01

42

42.TD

01

21

21.TD

09

43

Inc

01

36

61.TD

09

43

Inc

01

34

34.TD

?

30

INT

01

20

PBU

04

32

INT

14

40

Bad

03/06/116

na

01/06/42

04/11/158

38.7 ypc

42.0 ypc

39.5 ypc

19.3 ypt

7.0 ypt

14.4 ypt

Zone

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

10-19

01

10

20

13

10

10

04

13

13

04

12

15

04

14

14

16

11

Bad DP

09

10

10

04

19

Drop

02/02/35

01/01/10

03/04/37

06/07/82

17.5 ypc

10.0 ypc

12.3 ypc

13.7 ypc

17.5 ypt

10.0 ypt

9.3 ypt

11.7 ypt

Zone

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

1-9

09

07

48 OP

80

05

Drop

04

07

13

16

03

03

04

05

05

01

07

INT

04

05

09

01

04

04

04

03

09

08

04

06

07

04

07

09

04

PBU

07

03

04

07

03

07

09

09

09

04

01

01

07

05

05

04

05

Bad

16

07

13

03/05/13

00/01/00

11/12/82

14/18/95

4.3 ypc

0.0 ypc

7.5 ypc

6.8 ypc

2.6 ypt

0.0 ypt

6.8 ypt

5.3 ypt

Zone

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

Neg-0

14

(02)

04

na

na

01/01/04

01/01/04

4.0 ypc

4.0 ypc

4.0 ypt

4.0 4 ypt

?

Gap on Tape

04

31

C/A/Yds

8/12/164

1/2/10

16/22/165

20.5 ypc

10.0 ypc

10.3 ypc

13.7 ypt

5.0 ypt

7.5 ypt

Baylor-Rice

Sept. 26, 2015

Comp

Att

Yards

YPC

TD

Int

19

25

366

19.3

7

0

Zone

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

C/A/Yds

20+

01

35

35.TD

09

26

26.TD

14

41

PI

07

45

Inc

04

24

58.TD

14

41

PBU

01/03/35

02/02/84

na

03/05/119

35.0 ypc

42.0 ypc

39.6 ypc

11.7 ypt

42.0 ypt

Zone

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

10-19

01

10

Bad

01

14

16.TD

15

11

35

13

19

19

07

22

22.TD

12

14

25

na

05/06/117

na

05/06/117

23.4 ypc

23.4 ypc

19.5 ypt

19.5 ypt

Zone

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

1-9

01

04

35.TD

04

09

16

04

05

Bad

08

04

Drop

14

6

22

01

04

04

01/02/35

02/02/38

01/02/04

04/06/77

35.0 ypc

38.0 ypc

4.0 ypc

19.25 ypc

17.5 ypt

38.0 ypt

2.0 ypt

12.8 ypt

Zone

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

Neg-0

01

(1)

03

01

(2)

09

14

(2)

Drop

05

(1)

11

08

(2)

08.TD

12

(2)

05

8

(1)

14

12

0

05

07/08/55

na

na

07/08/55

7.8 ypc

7.8 ypc

6.9 ypt

6.9 ypt

C/A/Yds

09/13/125

09/10/239

01/02/04

13.9 ypc

26.5 ypc

2.0 ypc

9.6 ypt

23.9 ypt

2.0 ypt

Baylor-Texas Tech

October 03, 2015

Comp

Att

Yards

YPC

TD

Int

16

24

312

13.0

4

1

Zone

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

C/A/Yds

20+

09

43

PI

01

24

38

09

31

Inc

09

41

MisCom

09

21

Drop

01

29

PI

01

24

24.TD

00/01/00

02/03/62

00/01/00

02/05/62

0.0 ypc

32.0 ypc

0.0 ypc

31.0 ypc

0.0 ypt

20.7 ypt

0.0 ypt

12.4 ypt

Zone

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

10-19

01

14

16.TD

09

13

28.TD

04

32

88

XX

10

INT

15

10

Drop

09

45

Bad

01

17

PBU

15

10

13

01/03/16

02/03/41

01/02/88

4/8/145

16.0 ypc

20.5 ypc

88.0 ypc

36.3 ypc

5.3 ypt

13.7 ypt

44.0 ypt

18.1 ypt

Zone

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

1-9

07

01

04

04

05

23

09

08

10

01

04

16.TD

01

07

Bad

01

05

05

04

03

11

02/02/20

02/03/34

02/02/15

6/7/69

10.0 ypc

17.0 ypc

7.5 ypc

11.5 ypc

10.0 ypt

11.3 ypt

7.5 ypt

9.9 ypt

Zone

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

Neg-0

01

00

04

09

(01)

1

01

00

04

(08)

(02)

26

03/03/34

na

01/01/01

4/4/35

11.3 ypc

1.0 ypc

8.8 ypc

11.3 ypt

1.0 ypt

8.8 ypt

C/A/Yds

06/09/70

06/09/137

04/06/104

11.7 ypc

22.8 ypc

26.0 ypc

7.8 ypt

15.2 ypt

17.3 ypt

Baylor-Kansas

October 10, 2015

Comp

Att

Yards

YPC

TD

Int

27

37

363

9.6

4

0

Zone

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

C/A/Yds

20+

01

32

Inc

16

30

30.TD

14

36

Bad

01

38

40

09

26

PBU

08

37

42.TD

02/03/82

01/01/30

00/02/00

03/06/112

41.0 ypc

30.0 ypc

0.0 ypc

37.3 ypc

27.3 ypt

30.0 ypt

0.0 ypt

18.7 ypt

Zone

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

10-19

09

13

14

16

11

Bad

04

17

30

01

15

PBU

01

11

11.TD

09

19

PBU

09

15

17

01

14

16

14

13

14

01/02/14

04/06/58

01/01/30

06/09/102

14.0 ypc

14.5 ypc

30.0 ypc

17.0 ypc

7.0 ypt

9.7 ypt

30.0 ypt

11.3 ypt

Zone

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

1-9

01

07

09

07

05

18

04

05

Bad

01

06

11.TD

07

05

05

16

03

08

01

06

13

80

06

18.TD

13

03

10

01

07

PBU

14

05

07

01

05

OB

98

10

Inc

09

01

09

01

02

05

14

07

07

06/8/54

04/05/48

02/03/18

12/16/120

9.0 ypc

12.0 ypc

9.0 ypc

10.0 ypc

6.8 ypt

9.6 ypt

6.0 ypt

Zone

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

Receiver

Target

Result

Neg-0

32

(01)

06

32

(06)

11

05

(04)

(02)

09

(01)

04

08

(02)

07

05

(08)

04

03/03/11

na

03/03/19

06/06/30

3.7 ypc

19.0 ypc

5.0 ypc

3.7 ypt

19.0 ypt

5.0 ypt

C/A/Yds

12/16/161

09/12/136

06/09/67

13.4 ypc

15.1 ypc

11.2 ypc

10.1 ypt

11.3 ypt

7.4 ypt

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