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Tempering Expectations: Baylor's Defense

First, let me be clear, I am more than pleased with the progress of our defense from last season. The Bears have continued a positive trend that began half way through the 2012 campaign and resulted in the destruction of the UCLA Bruins in the Holiday Bowl. Bennett's troops are no longer one of the worst in college football, and I'm pretty sure that we have a slightly-above-average (and very opportunistic) squad--which is all that our offense really needs.

That being said, we do need to take note of ULM's success in moving the ball in the first half. Yes, I know, we shut them down in the second half, but we should keep in mind that ULM sat Kolton Browning. That's right, the player who is the engine of their offense was busy signaling in plays from sideline while his backup and Seth Russell slogged their way through the last two quarters.

Let's take a look at ULM's offensive stats for the first two quarters, when Browning was moving the ball (albeit twice into the hands of our defenders) against the Bears. For added interest, let's compare to the 2012 game's base stats.

ULM Production at Half 2012 2013

Total Yards 257 280

Passing: Comp-Att-Yds 14-20-122 16-37-214

Rushing: Att-Yds-Av 21-135-6.4 21-66-3.1

Points 21 7

The Warhawks rolled up 280 yards of offense and made it into the Red Zone four (4) times. In fact, their offense put up 23 more yards than in 2012, then we led only 24-21 at half. That leads me to ask (and then answer) the following:

  • Did ULM have a chance to match us score for score? No. ULM Coach Todd Berry said, "Quite honestly, if we play them 10 times, we lose 10 games the way they are playing right now. I haven't been this impressed with a football team I've played in a long time. They assault you so fast and they put you out of your game plan so fast." http://www.ulmwarhawks.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=19000&ATCLID=209267214
  • Did they come close to putting up 28 points to our offense's 35? Yes. They didn't, of course, but don't forget how close they were to rocking our defense back on its heels.
  • Might they have put up 500 plus yards of offense had Browning stayed in the game? Yes. And that's assuming that Browning and ULM would move the ball less effectively against our second team than they did against the first. Frankly, this concerns me.
  • Did we stop the run? Absolutely. In 2012 they moved the ball well on the ground to the tune of 6.5 yards a carry, last weekend they hit a brick wall (oftentimes in their own backfield).
  • Did we stop the run, but expose our defensive backs in the process? I think so, but can't be sure. Perhaps someone with a better eye for the game can tell me if we were asking more of our DB's than might normally be expected.
  • Should we dial back our high praise of the defense? Yes, but with the hope that they are still improving. Better yet, we are playing a schedule that allows the defense to mature, without any real risk, as the season rolls towards the OU game (to which I will sojourn from eastern Tennessee).

So what do you think? Are we too optimistic about the defense (or is hoping for an average squad, in itself, optimistic)? Will they step up in Big XII play? If I have nightmares about green-clad cornerbacks who never turn for the ball, should I seek help?

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