Week 15 Stats: The Big 12 Conference

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

After a break due mostly to despair in the aftermath of Baylor's loss at Oklahoma State, the Big 12 Stats post has returned from the grave with a new format! You'll have to tell me if you like it.

As you can see, I have changed things tremendously once again, this time in response to the positive reaction to a similar change I made to my weekly Stats Previews for each of Baylor's games. Instead of using one large, somewhat intimidating chart that was difficult to put together and even more difficult to read, I've broken things out again into Overall, Offensive, and Defensive metrics. The idea is compare apples to apples in a way that is a bit easier to digest. If you like it, let me know in the comments and I'll keep doing it. Now that I have the format for one post, replicating it will be a breeze.

So here are the charts. Again, all numbers are courtesy of the metrics at FootballOutsiders.com

2013 RANKS Baylor Oklahoma State
Kansas State
Oklahoma Texas TCU Texas Tech West Virginia Iowa State Kansas
OVERALL:
F+/ S&P+ /FEI
8 / 3 / 10 10 / 13 / 6 25 / 29 / 29
29 / 31 /28 38 / 53 / 39 46 / 38 / 53
60 / 48 / 59 81 / 94 / 70
83 / 89 / 79 101 / 111 /99
F/+ Special Teams
80 52 11 51 31
57 115
49 36 66
FPA 13 10
40 39 46 96 86 89 71 84

The teams above are arranged by F/+, the combined FootballOutsiders metric that takes into account both FEI and S&P+. I know what you're thinking, angry Oklahoma State fans: Baylor is above you and that's awful and you're angry about it. I'm sorry. Just know that there is nothing subjective on my part from these rankings. I pull them from FO and put them here. That's it. And besides, if you keep playing the way you have been this weekend and the bowl game, you'll likely jump us, anyway.

Does it surprise you that TCU at 4-8 is ranked ahead of Texas Tech at 7-5 and just behind Texas at 8-3? It probably shouldn't. TCU is better today than when they lost some of their early games, and others, particular Tech, aren't as good as they once were. As you'll see below, Tech fell off considerably on defense, in particular. But we'll get to that after the offenses!

Offensive Categories
Baylor Kansas State
Oklahoma State Texas Tech Oklahoma Texas Iowa State West Virginia TCU Kansas
F/+ Rk
2 18
29 35
35
38
84
93
97
120
FEI Rk 10
23
25
33
35
39
80
91
97
119
FD Rk 5
46
48
11
36
42

124

90
109
123
AY Rk 4
36
27 46
41
62
113
95
112
123
Ex Rk 1
20
29
74
56
67
102
79
99
116
Me Rk 85
31
66
6
32
83
110
112
109
114
Va Rk 10
23
27
37 40
49
109
107
105
122
S&P+ Rk
2
17
30
21
28
43
89
98
94
121
Play Efficiency
2
16
28
30
45
51
79
83
93
117
Std. Downs S&P+ Rk 2
12
52
60
36
48
64
73
86
106
Pass. Downs S&P+ Rk 3
29
12
9 55
48
78
85
89
118
Rushing S&P+ Rk 12
19
46
50
30
69
61
102
105
88
Passing S&P+ Rk 2
14
24
32
53
29
78
64
73
121
Drive Efficiency 2
17
36
18
23
39

96

103
92
122
DNP 2
40
23
50
38
48

110

95
84
118

So there's not much surprising here outside of Kansas State being the #2 offense in the conference, right? Their lead over OSU isn't all that big and once again, because OSU gets another game this weekend, they could still move up. 11/13s of the season (and thus the sample size for these metrics) is already over, but the opportunity remains. OSU is trending upward significantly on offense from where they were. As you might expect, three of the bottom four offenses in the conference (TCU, ISU, and KU) will be experiencing major changes this offseason with the hiring of new offensive coordinators. It will be interesting to see how those turn out.

Defensive Categories
Oklahoma State
TCU
Baylor Oklahoma Kansas State
Texas West Virginia
Kansas Iowa State
Texas Tech
F/+ Rk
7
13
24
29
49
51
71
72
81
83
FEI Rk 4
14
24
27
50
44
60
63
80
79
FD Rk 24
21
12
10
105
30

54

99
37
18
AY Rk 10
14
23
21
51
30
80
88
79
39
Ex Rk 17
41
59
42
30
66
91
90
76
47
Me Rk 74
17
18
43
93
10
47
41
72
46
Va Rk 13
20
23
27
34
48
87
79
83
41
S&P+ Rk
9
11
20
37 53
68
83
79
81
86
Play Efficiency
15
6
32
34 55
65
81
78
84
87
Std. Downs S&P+ Rk 22
5
30
41
66
79
51
89
90
72
Pass. Downs S&P+ Rk 9
11
35
26
44
42
99
61
56
98
Rushing S&P+ Rk 13
10 24
68
79
69
56
82
105
103
Passing S&P+ Rk 16
6
47
17
41
55
94
73
37
56
Drive Efficiency 27 18
16
36
50
70

84

79
80
85
DNP 17 55
2
32
20
53

80

108
99
46

Worried about the Baylor offense after the last two weeks? Maybe you shouldn't be. Or you shouldn't be as worried, let's say that. In back-to-back weeks, Baylor faced off against the top two defenses in the conference by F/+, both of which are now in the top 13 in the entire country. It's true, at least part of the credit for their lofty rankings should go to the very same performances against our offense causing those worries, but there's really no way to correct for that in the data. I'm comfortable saying those two defenses are the best we have faced this season, and our offensive outputs in those games support the point.

-----

This took longer to put together than I anticipated because of the formatting, so I'm going to skip the team-by-team thoughts this time around. As always, if you have any questions about the charts or suggestions for how this could be done in a better way, please let me know. Also, there is likely to be some cognitive dissonance stemming from situations where a team is ranked ahead of one that beat it (Baylor over OSU, OU over UT, KSU over OU and UT). There's nothing I can really do about that. These metrics have the unenviable task of synthesizing a season's worth of data without context for how things might be right now-- just to use Baylor as an example, without Tevin Reese and Spencer Drango, we're clearly not the offensive juggernaut we once were. So don't take these numbers as the Holy Writ. I write these posts to give a general look at how the conference stacks up at any given time, and I firmly believe, despite their limitations, these metrics are the best way to do that. Reasonable minds can differ.

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