Week 12 Stats: The Big 12 Conference

John Weast

Another new week, another new #2! The only thing you can rely on in the Big 12 Conference is Baylor. But you knew that.

After taking a week off in Week 11 due to the weird schedule of a Thursday night game, we are back. There is obviously a week missing in our stats, but it shouldn't make a huge difference in showing where the teams are relative to each other.

Two weeks ago, we noted in preparation for the Oklahoma Sooners that they had jumped the Oklahoma St. Cowboys for #2 in the Big 12 rankings by F/+. Now, a week later, they have fallen off to #4, giving way to two teams coming off big wins in KSU and OSU. Numbers 2-5, including Texas, are relatively close to each other and could easily switch positions over the course of the next week, particularly with OSU and UT playing in Austin on Saturday.

So here's the chart. Again, all numbers are courtesy of the metrics at FootballOutsiders.com

2013 RANKS Baylor Kansas State
Oklahoma State Oklahoma Texas Texas Tech TCU West Virginia Iowa State Kansas
OVERALL:
F+/ S&P+ /FEI
4 / 2 / 5 22 / 21 / 24 26 / 26 / 19
32 / 27 / 40 40 / 62 / 34 54 / 42 / 57
57 / 50 / 59 66 / 82 / 64
79 / 83 / 76 101 / 108 / 93
F/+ Special Teams
98 7 56 67 40
97 76
43 17 87
FPA 28 26 11
61 36 67 96 85 54 94
O/D Categories BU O BU D KSU O KSU D OSU O OSU D OU O OU D UT O UT D TT O TT D TCU O TCU D WVU O WVU D ISU O ISU D KU O KU D
FEI Rk 3 17
31 34
38
12
42
29
24
52
22
86
109
14 86
55 95
72
118 60
FD Rk 1 2 26 95 67 11

53

14 51 16 16 12 113 23 95 64 123 35 125
110
AY Rk 1
10
24 56
57 8 58 21
65 26 39 29
112 14 101 73
118
71
125 92
Ex Rk 1
14 28
24 55 9 72
37
76
43 78 17
109 44
95
87 114
65
113
82
Me Rk 80 45
19
96 111 75 46 41
100
22
6 46
104 11
103 36
112 71 122
65
Va Rk 2
11
24
35 62 7 53 30 55
47
33
31 110 13 107 78 114
82
122
84
S&P+ Rk
1
7
17 33 47 15
27 30 49 80 19 86 101 16 88 64 89 61 113 73
Play Efficiency
1 9 16
37 41
27
34 29
52
78 21
88
96 13
78
54
84
52
116
62
Std. Downs S&P+ Rk 2 10 17
50 70 29
28 33 54
71
48
75
88 8
62
39
50 67
95 87
Pass. Downs S&P+ Rk 1 19 31
9 18
40
51 13
37 91
8 111
106 38 82
67 95
26
115
21
Rushing S&P+ Rk 14 14 16 74
38
19 29 80 78
82
52 96 108
22
100
36
50
90
87
84
Passing S&P+ Rk 1 11
20
12 48
45 37
8
25
75
22 84
86
26
49
65 88
20
117
40
Drive Efficiency 2 4 17
31
48
13

24

30
45
77
16
81
107
18 93
67
92
66
117
76
DNP 1 1 33
25
32
14

47

41
42
42
40
32
84
53 98
90
114
104
116
106

All of the standard disclaimers and explanations apply. If I need to elaborate on anything in the chart, I'm more than happy to do so. You can also refer to the descriptions for each stat listed at FO in the link above. This week, I added the DNP metric for both offense and defense. I also had to rearrange things to make entry a bit easier. I think Bill is changing his column orders just to trip me up (not really).

Just like last week, I'll start by ranking the teams by F/+ to give us a conference lineup from top to bottom.

Big 12 Conference by F/+

(Last week's rank in parenthesis)

1. Baylor (1)
2. Kansas State (4)
3. Oklahoma State (3)
4. Oklahoma (2)
5. Texas (5)
6. Texas Tech (6)
7. TCU (7)
8. West Virginia (9)
9. Iowa State (8)
10. Kansas (10)

As I've said before, I generally have a pretty good idea of how this post will turn out when I begin writing it, especially on days where I write about our opposing team for that week. This time, however, I was pleasantly surprised to see the Kansas State Wildcats charge up the ranks to #2 in the conference in F/+. Before anyone freaks out, it is likely a result of two factors: 1) how well KSU played us in Manhattan, and 2) we just finished dominating the #2 team less than a week ago. Oh, and the Snydercats killed Tech on Saturday.

Big 12 Offenses by F/+ (the combination of S&P+ and FEI)

(Last week's rank in parenthesis)

1. Baylor (1)
2. Texas Tech (2)
3. Kansas State (5)
4. Texas (4)
5. Oklahoma (3)
6. Oklahoma State (6)
7. West Virginia (8)
8. Iowa State (7)
9. TCU (9)
10. Kansas (10)

Wow, Kansas State is really moving up the ranks. The performance of Daniel Sams at QB has invigorated their offense, nearly pushing them past Texas Tech for second in the conference. It's also directly impacting our own rankings on defense, as we'll see below.

Big 12 Defenses by F/+ (same)

(Last week's rank in parenthesis)

1. Baylor (3)
2. Oklahoma State (1)
3. TCU (2)
4. Oklahoma (4)
5. Kansas State (5)
6. West Virginia (7)
7. Texas (6)
8. Kansas (8)
9. Iowa State (10)
10. Texas Tech (9)

That's right-- the Baylor Bears now have the #1 offense and #1 defense in the conference after last week's game. Surprised? I was. But maybe I shouldn't have been. Baylor's defense has improved tremendously in every respect, with no area of improvement bigger than against the run.

Behind the Bears are the same two teams we saw at the top of the rankings the last few weeks. They've generally been considered the best defenses in the conference, so it makes sense that they are here. TCU, however, has had significant problems recently against the pass, pushing them down the rankings. Nothing has really changed for OSU, we just passed them. Everything else behind is relatively stable, as well, except for the fall of Texas Tech over recent weeks. We get them Saturday.

Team-Specific Notes:

Baylor: Baylor now has what is officially the best offense and defense in the conference by F/+. Our rise on defense has been particularly remarkable, as we've managed to correct all of the problems from earlier in the season and reach heights heretofore unknown to our program. The offense's performance against OU didn't hurt the offense too much since the stats had a fairly healthy respect for the Sooners on defense, and the dominant show put on by our defense improved things considerably.

Kansas State: Welcome to the #2 spot, KSU! I hope your stay here is longer than those who have come before. The offense continues to improve in ways previously thought impossible. We knew you had a strong running game already, but the passing game? That's a new one. The pass/run combination of Jake Waters and Daniel Sams has worked masterfully as two-QB systems rarely do, and you've turned what looked like an awkward situation into one that is actually quite efficient.

Oklahoma State: #2 in the polls, #3 in F/+. That's how it works for you guys right now, Oklahoma State. With three games left on your schedule, you managed a situation where you get the #1, #4, and #5 teams left on your schedule, which is about as hard as it could possibly be in this conference. Problems throwing the ball have sapped your offense on standard downs, though in a somewhat weird switch, you're actually pretty good on passing downs. That's the opposite of what you would expect from a team that runs the ball better than it passes. Your defense mirrors the offense-- significantly better against the run than the pass.

Oklahoma: I don't need to tell you this, but you've got problems on offense that S&P+ might not fully comprehend. Whatever, the better your offense ranks there, the better our defensive performance looks against you. I'm cool with that.

Texas: Because I don't have the week before your WVU game, I can't tell you how much giving up 40 points to the Mountaineers cost. My guess is a lot. Somehow, you're now worse against the pass than the run. I did not expect that.

Texas Tech: The wheels are now completely off for the defense after a strong start for the second straight year. Your #111 defense on passing downs versus our #1 offense on the same looks incredibly tantalizing.

TCU: You struggled to beat Iowa State on the road. That's not good. If Kansas wasn't here, I'd ask how it's possible to be that bad on offense.

West Virginia: The failure of your running game to gain any traction with Charles Sims in the fold is slightly baffling.

Iowa State: Jumped up a spot last time, moved down a spot this time. Has now lost 7 games in a row, including every conference game. They play Kansas in 10 days, and that should be just amazing.

Kansas: Basketball is coming.

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