Week 8 Advanced Stats: The Big 12 Conference

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

We're back for another edition of ODB's weekly "Bombard You with Big 12 Numbers!" Get excited!

This is the first week of the 2013 season when FEI data is available, so we finally have a full chart at our disposal. You'll notice, if you're a connoisseur of weeks past, that in addition to having more numbers, the chart also looks different. That is on purpose. I've removed the run-pass ratio entries because it's information I could never find, and I've moved FPA, which stands for Field Position Advantage, to the top section where it belongs.

The games of Week 7 resulted in a ton of movement across the Big 12 Conference. We now have new teams at #2 and #3, and one charging quickly up the ranks!

So here's the chart. Again, all numbers are courtesy of the metrics at FootballOutsiders.com


Baylor Texas Tech
Oklahoma State Oklahoma Kansas State TCU Texas Iowa State West Virginia Kansas
OVERALL:
F+/ S&P+ /FEI
6 / 3 / 12 27 / 27 / 24 28 / 22 /23 30 / 35 /35 38 / 40 /48 42 / 36 /53 46 / 66 /31 55 / 69 /37 79 / 74 /76 97 / 109 /88
2013 F/+ Special Teams
119 84 98 61 8 56 44 7 72 49
2013 FPA 38 62 55 42 44 73 59 12 75 81
O/D Categories BU O BU D TT O TT D OSU O OSU D OU O OU D KSU O KSU D TCU O TCU D UT O UT D ISU O ISU D WVU O WVU D KU O KU D
2013 FEI Rk 5 42 23 29 36 13 42 24 52 56 76 34 27 66 50 77 102 45 122 35
2013 S&P+ Rk 1 32 22 26 60 11

33

37 46 30 84 18 43 91 75 68 97
40 113 85
2013 FD Rk 1
40
34 3 73 21 37 9 31 106 114 5 44 35 119 46 93 56 122 83
2013 AY Rk 1
56
43 3 63 22 56 16 35 81 104 10 48 58 98 49 99 52 122 67
2013 Ex Rk 1
51
94 7 40 5 65 27 39 52 100 60 55 65 92 36 85 100 93 24
2013 Me Rk 101
69
40 23 105 104 46 18 11 93 85 27 84 55 111 79 98 17 118 98
2013 Va Rk 4
55
29 4 62 13 48 20 28 68 102 11 44 75 98 69 108 59 121 58
2013 Play Efficiency
1 40 27 51
56 14 36 43
56 22
85
15
43
90
75
85
86
32
112
79
2013 Std. Downs S&P+ Rk 5 46 75 89
66 10 21 40
37
30
85
16
33
79
62
78
53
24
113 94
2013 Pass. Downs S&P+ Rk 1 66 9 54
44
51
66 76
79
10
64
19
50
97 62
80
94
30
110 68
2013 Rushing S&P+ Rk 15 65 67 53
63
6
24 84
40
58
96
39
60
86
39
107
74
52
107 104
2013 Passing S&P+ Rk 1 52 29 85
59
34
56 30
54
10
60
13
22
81
80
37
71
19
107 67
2013 Drive Efficiency
2 28 20 21
68
11

28

31
41
37
81
16
44
88
70 55
107
54
115
84

First thing's first, rather than do a subjective "Power Ranking" that I basically just spew onto the page, let's rank the teams according to F/+ in a more easily-read format. This is how they're ranked in the chart above, but in a list.

Big 12 Rankings by F/+:

1. Baylor
2. Texas Tech
3. Oklahoma State
4. Oklahoma
5. Kansas State
6. TCU
7. Texas
8. Iowa State
9. West Virginia
10. Kansas

Texas' big win over Oklahoma had two major effects, each related to the given team. OU, once the second-ranked team in the conference by F/+, tumbled to fourth. Texas didn't move much in the standings themselves but gained tremendous ground. Now the conference is aligned with one clear team at the top, Baylor, three bunched from 27-30, three more from 38-46, then Iowa State, West Virginia, and Kansas. Kansas is very bad.

Big 12 Offenses by FEI and S&P+:

Without the time or inclination to do an actual average of the two measures, I'm kinda eyeballing it on these next two. Correct me in the comments if you think I have teams misplaced.

1. Baylor
2. Texas Tech
3. Texas
4. Oklahoma
5. Oklahoma State
6. Kansas State
7. Iowa State
8. TCU
9. West Virginia
10. Kansas

Big 12 Defenses by FEI and S&P+:

1. Oklahoma State
2. TCU
3. Oklahoma
4. Texas Tech
5. Baylor
6. West Virginia
7. Kansas State
8. Kansas
9. Iowa State
10. Texas

Probably didn't expect to see that last one there, did you? I'm not sure it's reflective of reality, since a lot has apparently changed with the Texas defense in recent weeks. Still, the numbers don't like them at all. As far as the rest go, behind OSU there's a pretty solid group of TCU, OU, and Texas Tech, each of which could have a claim to the #2 spot depending on which measure, or which combination of the two measures, you prefer. Baylor is firmly fifth.

Team-Specific Notes:

Baylor: Best offenses by a lot, with the rank of the running game predictably falling after the Kansas State game. Baylor is ranked 101st in methodical drives because we simply haven't needed to do it. We're so far ahead in explosive drives that it's crazy. We're simply scoring too quickly! No, that's impossible. Defensively, the Bears epitomize the "bend but don't break" philosophy, giving up yards and first downs, but not points. That's what a Drive Efficiency of 28 means when you have much higher component ranks feeding into S&P+. Overall, Baylor fell this week because our offense isn't quite so amazeballs as it was (but is still quite amazeballs), and other teams performed well. We are now sixth overall in F/+, about where I've seen us ranked by several publications.

Texas Tech: Probably the most-balanced Big 12 team, although I don't mean that as the best. With OU tumbling down the ranks, Tech slid into the second spot in the conference on the strength of a defense that is probably better than you think but not quite as good as they think. It's built up incredible numbers against what FEI calls the 119th-worst defensive schedule to date. Baylor's, for reference, is 101st. That's not to say their defense isn't good-- it's probably better than ours-- it's just not world-beating like the Red Raiders apparently believe. Texas Tech passes the ball well but does not get explosive drives, exactly what you'd expect from an Air Raid team that dinks and dunks its way down the field. They have problems defensively on standard downs.

Oklahoma State: Best defense, suspicious offense? Am I talking about TCU? Well, almost. OSU has a weird, non-Gundy combination of units this season that is probably driving their fans crazy. Their offense does not run the ball very well, leading to a poor methodical drive percentage that is not offset by a high explosive drive ranking (as Baylor's is). Their defense, on the other hand, simply does not allow explosive drives at all and seems to give up points, when it does give up points, through methodical drives. It's a very interesting combination. Basically, you can't do much against their defense at all, but if you want to do something, you'll pass short and work your way down the field. Their game against Texas Tech could be fun to watch.

Oklahoma: The offense has come crashing down of late, while the defense has still managed to play relatively well. Run defense and pass offense are the biggest questions right now, as you can imagine after watching Texas bulldoze them this weekend.

Kansas State: A thoroughly average Big 12 team that someone on twitter called the best 2-4 team in the country today. That's probably true. I'm tired of talking about Kansas State and it's been one sentence. Oh, and an entire other week.

TCU: Good defense, bad offense should probably be their team motto at this point. They have given up more big plays than methodical drives, but they don't give up much, period. Their offense is not good.

Texas: I do not think you are the 7th-best team in the conference right now. Were I doing a subjective Power Ranking, you'd probably be fourth. I don't know how useful many of these defensive rankings are since you were such a dumpster fire early in the season and apparently are not now. I don't believe you have the worst defense in the conference. That honor probably still belongs to either Kansas or Iowa State, though I doubt it's Iowa State. It's probably Kansas.

Iowa State: I like what I'm seeing in your run defense, but I don't like what I'm seeing in your run offense. That's clearly your best offensive weapon, but that's damning with faint praise. Please keep Steele Jantz away from me. And your ridiculously good special teams. Those will give me different, non-Jantz-related nightmares.

West Virginia: Pleasantly surprised by your defensive rankings, which are probably buoyed by those games against the Oklahoma schools. On defense, you have a problem with explosive plays, something we knew already, but you're pretty good everywhere else. Take heart, West Virginia fans, things are ok. But not on offense. That's not ok at all.

Kansas: Woo, boy are you terrible on offense. Holy cow, that is awful. But the defense looks better! That's a positive, right?

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