First Look: TCU Horned Frogs

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Fresh off a loss in Stillwater this past weekend, the #9 Baylor Bears will head to Fort Worth for a matchup with the spoiler-minded TCU Horned Frogs.

vs.
9/8/9 BAYLOR (9-1, 6-1) vs. NR/NR/NR TCU (4-7, 2-6)
Nov. 30, 2013 | 2:30 p.m. CT
Fort Worth, Texas | Amon G. Carter Stadium (45,000)

TV: ESPN2
Listen | GametrackerGametracker | Game Notes Notes | Tickets | In-Game BlogSportStream | Gameday Central

OPPONENT: TCU Horned Frogs
OFFICIAL WEBSITE
: GoFrogs.cstv | TCU Game Preview
2013 ROSTER, DEPTH CHART (opens as .pdf, page 17)
LAST MEETING: 49-21 TCU win | ODB Game Hub
LAST GAME (for TCU): 33-31 loss to Kansas State
SB NATION BLOG: Frogs O' War
SPREAD: Baylor -12.5
TV COVERAGE: ESPN2
WEATHER FORECAST: High of 61, overcast

SB NATION TCU PREVIEW: Survive, Then Thrive
BAYLORBEARS.COM PREVIEW: Last Road Game in Big 12 Play

Something we need to talk about this week is the fact that this will, in all likelihood, be TCU's Super Bowl. They've had an extra week to prepare before we came into town, and we're still the #9 team in the country. Their team/fanbase doesn't like us in the best of times, and these are hardly that. They're not going to a bowl game this year. It's Senior Day. They're going to be charged up. The weather won't be a factor, and I anticipate a significantly larger crowd of Baylor fans in Fort Worth than was in Stillwater, but it's still something to think about.

Oh, and if you're expecting a "Why I Hate TCU/Their Fans/Reptiles in General/People from Fort Worth/Whatever", you're going to be disappointed.


Horned Frogs Football Schedule

LSU Sat 08/31 L 27 - 37
SE Louisiana Sat 09/07 W 38 - 17
@ Texas Tech Thu 09/12 L 10 - 20
SMU Sat 09/28 W 48 - 17
@ Oklahoma Sat 10/05 L 17 - 20
Kansas Sat 10/12 W 27 - 17
@ Oklahoma St. Sat 10/19 L 10 - 24
Texas Sat 10/26 L 7 - 30
West Virginia Sat 11/02 L 27 - 30
@ Iowa St. Sat 11/09 W 21 - 17
@ Kansas St. Sat 11/16 L 31 - 33
Baylor Sat 11/30 2:30 PM CST

To say this has been a disappointing season for the Horned Frogs would be an understatement. Though things started relatively well with a loss to LSU in the first game, the Frogs lost starting QB Casey Pachall in the second game of the year to a broken arm. Backup Trevone Boykin -- the same guy who torched us last year -- started the next 6 games during which TCU never managed to string two wins together in a row. They're now 4-7 overall and 2-6 in conference play in their second year in the Big 12, and after losing to Kansas State 10 days ago, they will not play for a bowl. Their game with us is the final one of the 2013 season that I'm sure they just want to forget.

Before they do that, however, they'll get a chance to play spoiler against a Baylor team still looking to reach unprecedented heights for our program. They'll do so with one of the two or three best defenses in the conference by almost any measure and an offense that has been inconsistent, at best. It seems Casey Pachall will get his third-straight start at QB for the Frogs with Boykin probably playing some WR alongside Brandon Carter, a name Baylor fans should know well, LaDarius Brown, and Ty Slanina. B.J. Catalon, once a Baylor RB commit, should get the start at the tailback spot. Since he's been reportedly kicked off the team, we won't see Waymon James.

Statistic National
Rank
Conference
Rank
Value National Leader Value Conference
Leader
Value
3rd Down Pct 111 9 0.317 LSU 0.586 Baylor 0.507
3rd Down Pct Defense 40 5 0.367 Louisville 0.264 Oklahoma St. 0.327
4th Down Pct 93 6 0.385 Wake Forest 0.818 Iowa St. 0.625
4th Down Pct Defense 41 7 0.444 North Texas 0.200 Baylor 0.208
Blocked Kicks Air Force 7 Kansas St. 5
Blocked Kicks Allowed 31 1 1 30 teams tied 0 Iowa St.
Kansas St.
TCU
1
1
1
Blocked Punts 4 teams tied 3 Kansas 2
Blocked Punts Allowed 76 4 1 75 teams tied 0 Iowa St.
Kansas St.
West Virginia
0
0
0
Completion Percentage 65 5 0.589 East Carolina 0.724 Baylor 0.637
Fewest Penalties 101 7 6.91 Navy 2.82 Kansas St. 4.73
Fewest Penalty Yards 99 7 58.09 Navy 23.09 Kansas St. 40.09
First Downs Defense 26 3 201 Louisville 147 Baylor 178
First Downs Offense 110 9 190 Texas Tech 314 Texas Tech 314
Fumbles Lost 110 9 12 Utah
Bowling Green
2
2
Oklahoma St. 3
Fumbles Recovered 31 5 9 Houston
Ball St.
16
16
West Virginia 15
Kickoff Return Defense 122 10 27.91 Miami (OH) 14.91 Oklahoma St. 18.29
Kickoff Returns 4 1 26.45 Stanford 27.21 TCU 26.45
Net Punting 84 8 36.09 Alabama 42.03 West Virginia 40.50
Pass Sacks Allowed 65 6 2.00 Toledo 0.45 Oklahoma St. 0.91
Passes Had Intercepted 96 8 14 Louisville
Army
3
3
Baylor 4
Passes Intercepted 4 2 18 Florida St. 23 Oklahoma St. 19
Passing Offense 73 7 220.6 Texas Tech 400.2 Texas Tech 400.2
Pass Yards Allowed 59 4 227.4 Bowling Green 156.4 Oklahoma 197.8
Pass Yards / Completion 97 10 11.08 Baylor 18.45 Baylor 18.45
Punt Return Defense 95 4 10.60 Utah St. -0.60 West Virginia 4.82
Punt Returns 39 5 10.13 Kansas St. 17.91 Kansas St. 17.91
Red Zone Defense 80 5 0.846 Bowling Green 0.560 Oklahoma St. 0.658
Red Zone Offense 40 6 0.865 Northwestern 0.976 Iowa St. 0.935
Rushing Defense 23 1 127.8 Michigan St. 59.4 TCU 127.8
Rushing Offense 108 10 118.3 Army 330.6 Baylor 279.7
Scoring Defense 40 4 23.8 Alabama 9.3 Oklahoma St. 18.8
Scoring Offense 91 8 23.9 Baylor 56.8 Baylor 56.8
Tackles for Loss Allowed 40 2 5.27 Toledo
Stanford
3.36
3.36
Baylor 4.80
Team Pass Sacks 28 2 2.64 Louisville 3.45 Baylor 3.00
Passing Efficiency 97 7 115.91 Baylor 189.38 Baylor 189.38
Pass Efficiency Defense 12 2 109.01 Florida St. 90.65 Oklahoma St. 106.30
Team Tackles for Loss 5 2 8.2 Clemson 9.6 Baylor 8.6
Time of Possession 47 4 30:31 Michigan St. 34:38 Oklahoma 32:14
Total Defense 29 3 355.2 Michigan St. 236.6 Oklahoma 330.5
Total Offense 105 9 338.9 Baylor 661.6 Baylor 661.6
Turnover Margin 58 6 0.1 Houston 2.1 Oklahoma St. 1.5
Turnovers Gained 7 2 27 Houston 36 Oklahoma St. 29
Turnovers Lost 112 8 26 Navy
Bowling Green
8
8
Oklahoma St. 13

Something happened with the table this week. I don't care enough to try to fix it.

Without getting too much into the stats for this game before tomorrow's stats preview, there are a few areas where the Horned Frogs excel, nearly all of which relate to the defense. First, they have the best run defense in the Big 12 Conference at just 128 rushing yards per game allowed. If Lache Seastrunk misses another game (assuming Glasco Martin does), that could be a problem for us. Part of that comes from being #5 in the country as far as team tackles for loss. They trail only our own Baylor Bears in that stat for the conference. Because they have one of the two best CBs in the conference, Jason Verrett, they are #2 behind Oklahoma State in interceptions on the season with 18.

Besides all that, the story of this year's TCU team has been one of futility on offense. According to the latest S&P+ rankings, TCU comes in at exactly 100th on that side of the ball. That's not good. Even following our dismal showing in Stillwater, we're #2, a step behind Oklahoma State. Somewhat shockingly, TCU is significantly worse running the ball (111th) than passing it (75th), though I suspect that is largely a result of teams loading the box against Boykin before Pachall returned from injury. They've looked better on that side to my eyes but still not great.

On defense, Baylor's loss to OSU dropped the Bears to #12 in defensive S&P+, five spots ahead of TCU at #17. Though relatively balanced run vs. pass, they are excellent on standard downs. A strong rushing defense probably plays a big role in that.

QUESTION TIME:

  • First -- This week marks the first time this season that Baylor will play two road games in a row. I'm going on record as predicting that we'll see the chrome helmets make their daytime and road debut this week and that we'll throw down the much-anticipated Stormtrooper+ (chrome/white/white). Thoughts?
  • Second -- It really sounds like Lache will play this week but Glasco won't. Assuming only one of the two can play, which would you rather have against TCU's defense?
  • Third -- What scares you most about this game? Is it the rebound factor from OSU, TCU's defense, or something else?
  • Fourth -- It seems strange to me that Bryce Petty has suddenly lost all chance to win the Heisman despite retaining an outstanding statistical year. He still has only one interception this season against 26 passing touchdowns. Do you think there is anything he could do to get back into it?
  • Fifth -- What is your favorite Thanksgiving food?

I'm going to do an updated Depth Chart for this game tonight, probably. It should have Aiavion Edwards in at MLB for Bryce Hager and everyone else on defense the same.

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