Baylor Football Stats, Projections Through Week 13

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Our weekly look at the stats and projections for Baylor, as well as the records likely to fall and the individual performances that are making Bears fans proud!

The Baylor Bears are now 9-0 on the season and #4 in the BCS with a bead on #3. We're breaking records, baby!

Offensive Stats:

We begin on the offensive side of the ball with the records, those big numbers placed in books that everybody wants to have. Baylor has several in its sights through 9 games in the 2013 season.

Below, the first number shows our current average in a given statistic. The next (perhaps 2) shows what we need to average over the next 6 games to break the record, which should be specified.

Baylor Points Per Game: 61.2
Needed for Total Points Record (OU 2008): 41.5 (ppg)
Needed for Points Per Game Record (Army 1944): 44.5 (ppg)

Scoring 63 points against Tech when your average was 61.0 causes the average to go up! Funny how this "math" thing works. We now have scored 551 points this season (27 fewer than a year ago in 13 games) and given up just 157. That's right, the Bears have nearly outscored their opponents by 400 points. The records for points in a season, as always, straight from the NCAA:

MOST POINTS SCORED
-- (9 games) 504-Army, 1944
-- (10 games) 466-Oklahoma, 1956
-- (11 games) 589-Houston, 1989
-- (12 games) 624-Nebraska, 1983
-- (13 games) 652-Texas, 2005
-- (14 games) 716-Oklahoma, 2008

That last one is the one everybody cares about, and the one I focus on in these posts, at least in terms of points for the season. Commenters correctly point out that OU had an extra game to work with in 2008, but you're making a distinction others will miss. If Baylor doesn't score the 166 points necessary to beat OU's record (717 > 716), nobody will care that we beat Texas' for a 13-game season. Thankfully, 166 points over 4 games is just 41.5 points per game. This is well within reach.

Army's record for points per game (56.0 in 1944) is the other I have my eye on, and it came in 9 games. Had they played 13, Army would have scored 728 points. To score 729, we'll need 178 more over 4 games, for an average of 44.5 points per game. Baylor can break both modern records, for points in a season and points per game, by scoring under 45 points per game the rest of the way. We've done that in every game but two this season.

Baylor Yards Per Game: 684.8
Needed for Total Yards in a Season (2011 Houston): 556 (ypg)
Needed for Yards Per Game (1989 Houston): 490.5 (ypg)

So we didn't get back to our season average in yardage against Texas Tech, but we got close. Baylor racked up 675 yards of offense against the Red Raiders, bringing our season total to 6163. Our opponents have just 2903. Our new average is now 684.8. Over the course of an entire season, that would be a Baylor and NCAA record, breaking that of the 1989 Houston Cougars by about 60 yards per game (the old record is 624.9).

As I've said before, there are actually two records at play for yards, just like points. The first is the aforementioned yards per game of the 1989 Cougars, who averaged 624.9 yards per game over 11 games. The second is total yards in a season, set at 8387 by the 2011 Houston Cougars. That record came in 14 games, something Baylor can't possibly get.

To break the former record (yards per game), Baylor needs 625 yards per game, or 8125 over 13 games. With 6163 yards already through 9 games, Baylor needs just 1962 over its last 4, or 490.5, to set a new record. That's going to happen.

To break the latter, Baylor needs 2224 over its final 4, or 556 yards per game. One thing to remember is that if we win out we get Fresno State in the Fiesta Bowl (most likely). I think that record falls, too.

Baylor Yards Per Play: 8.5

The NCAA record for yards gained per play is currently held by the Hawaii's 2006 team at 8.6. We've now fallen just below that mark. I have tremendous disappoint. Projecting out over the course of the season is difficult to the point of absurdity because we don't know either variable in the equation: how many yards Baylor will get or how many plays it will take to do it.

With that in mind, what we can do is say that Baylor has run 723 plays so far this season, or 80.3333 per game. The assertion that our number of plays might actually go up against better teams is apparently proving true. We'll see if that trend holds against Oklahoma State. I don't think it will, so we'll say 75 again.

75*4 = 300 plays remaining + 723 plays already run = 1023 total plays.
1023*8.7 (moving in tenths up from Hawaii's record) = 8900.1 yards (this number is going up, that's not good).
8900.1 - 6163 = 2737.1 / 300 plays = 9.124 yards per play. Probably not happening, but again, if you decrease the number of plays you run the rest of the way, the yards you need to break the record goes down.

Baylor National Ranks in Offensive Categories

Scoring Offense: 1
Total Offense: 1
Rushing Offense: 9
Passing Offense: 3
Yards/Completion: 1
Team Passing Efficiency: 1
3rd Down Conversion %: 7
First Downs: 6
Fewest Offensive 3 & Outs: 1

Team Summary

Passing Rushing Total Offense First Downs Penalties Turnovers
Split G Cmp Att Pct Yds TD Att Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg Pass Rush Pen Tot No. Yds Fum Int Tot
Offense 9 19.9 30.8 64.6 383.1 3.0 49.8 301.3 6.1 80.6 684.4 8.5 13.2 15.2 1.4 29.9 8.4 80.6 0.8 0.4 1.2
Defense 9 15.3 33.4 45.8 190.1 1.4 43.0 132.4 3.1 76.4 322.6 4.2 7.8 7.0 2.7 17.4 6.7 60.3 0.9 1.3 2.2
Difference +4.6 -2.6 +18.8 +193.0 +1.6 +6.8 +168.9 +3.0 0.0 +4.2 +361.8 +4.3 +5.4 +8.2 -1.3 +12.5 +1.7 +20.3 -0.1 -0.9 -1.0
Provided by Sports-Reference.com/CFB: View Original Table
Generated 11/19/2013.

As always, Sports-Reference's numbers are not official. They're close.

The Quarterbacks

Passing
Rk Player Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
1 Bryce Petty 153 234 65.4 3002 12.8 14.7 24 1 206.1
2 Seth Russell 26 43 60.5 427 9.9 8.2 3 3 152.9
3 Levi Norwood 1 1 100.0 41 41.0 41.0 0 0 444.4
Provided by Sports-Reference.com/CFB: View Original Table
Generated 11/19/2013.

Let's break it out even further with Mr. Petty.

Passing
Year School Conf Class Pos Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
2013 Baylor Big 12 JR QB 153 234 65.4 3002 12.8 14.7 24 1 206.1
Projected Baylor 221 358 65.4 4336 12.8 14.7 35 1 205.1
Provided by Sports-Reference.com/CFB: View Original Table
Generated 11/19/2013.

And then you add in another projected 14 touchdowns on the ground and you have 49 total TDs. Say he gets 200 yards and he's got 4500 yards, 49 TDs, and 1 INT. AND YOU'RE SAYING THAT'S NOT HEISMAN WORTHY?

The Running Backs

Rushing Receiving Scrimmage
Rk Player Att Yds Avg TD Rec Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg TD
1 Rashodrick Linwood 107 812 7.6 8 1 15 15.0 0 108 827 7.7 8
2 Lache Seastrunk 102 883 8.7 11 102 883 8.7 11
3 Glasco Martin 75 319 4.3 5 75 319 4.3 5
4 Bryce Petty 53 127 2.4 10 53 127 2.4 10
5 Devin Chafin 42 257 6.1 4 42 257 6.1 4
6 Anthony Webb 27 150 5.6 0 27 150 5.6 0
7 Seth Russell 24 147 6.1 3 24 147 6.1 3
Provided by Sports-Reference.com/CFB: View Original Table
Generated 11/19/2013.

That's right, Linwood actually passed Seastrunk in terms of touches this past game. Congrats to the redshirt freshman! I'll bet money that Lache and Linwood both get to 1,000 this season. In fact, I'll bet money that (barring injury) both get 1200.

A RB finally caught a pass!

The Wide Receivers

Rushing Receiving Scrimmage
Rk Player Att Yds Avg TD Rec Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg TD
1 Antwan Goodley 3 27 9.0 0 49 1085 22.1 11 52 1112 21.4 11
2 Tevin Reese 33 824 25.0 8 33 824 25.0 8
3 Levi Norwood 26 468 18.0 4 26 468 18.0 4
4 Corey Coleman 16 289 18.1 2 16 289 18.1 2
5 Clay Fuller 20 279 14.0 1 20 279 14.0 1
6 Jay Lee 15 219 14.6 1 15 219 14.6 1
7 Robbie Rhodes 1 8 8.0 0 9 153 17.0 0 10 161 16.1 0
8 Jerod Monk 2 53 26.5 0 2 53 26.5 0
9 Jordan Najvar 4 43 10.8 0 4 43 10.8 0
10 Brandon Brown 1 22 22.0 0 1 22 22.0 0
11 Lynx Hawthorne 1 -1 -1.0 0 2 14 7.0 0 3 13 4.3 0
12 Darius Jones 1 5 5.0 0 1 5 5.0 0
13 Cal Spangler 1 1 1.0 0 1 1 1.0 0
Provided by Sports-Reference.com/CFB: View Original Table
Generated 11/19/2013.

Goodley went over 1,000 yards!! WAHOO. GO ANTWAN. Now, here's the question for you: does Levi pass Tevin? He needs 360-ish yards.

Defensive Stats:

Baylor National Ranks in Defensive Categories:

Scoring Defense: 7
Total Defense: 9
Rushing Defense: 26
Passing Defense: 14
Team Pass Efficiency Defense: 6
3rd Down Conversion % Defense: 15
4th Down Conversion % Defense: 3
Red Zone Defense: 5
First Downs Allowed: 6
Team Sacks: 8
Tackles for Loss: 2
Defensive 3 & Outs: 1

If you want to see the corresponding conference ranks, refer to our team summary.

Team Leaders:

Tackles: Bryce Hager (71), Eddie Lackey (66), Ahmad Dixon (58)
Tackles for Loss: Shawn Oakman (12), Eddie Lackey (8.5) Jamal Palmer and Chris McAllister (8.0)
Sacks: McAllister (5.5), Jamal Palmer (4.0), and Eddie Lackey (3.0)

As a whole, Baylor's defense has 77 tackles for loss through 8 games. In 13 last season, the Bears had 58. The 2013 team has 28 sacks, while the 2012 team had 19.

Advanced Stats Preview:

I'm not going to get into these in depth until tomorrow, but I wanted to direct your attention to the F/+ numbers that dropped today. There, Baylor now has the #1 offense and #9 defense in the country. We are now the #3 team in the country in F/+, behind just Florida State and Alabama.

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