Baylor Football Stats, Projections Through Week 11

John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

Our weekly look at the stats and projections for Baylor, as well as the records likely to fall and the individual performances that are making Bears fans proud!

We are back once again, a little earlier than usual on this Monday evening because we're planning to record a podcast tonight (still time to email in your Bear Droppings!), to discuss the stats surrounding Baylor Bears football. And coming off another impressive Big 12 win, we have much to talk about.

Note: If some of this looks like I cut and paste from past weeks, it's because I did! All numbers are updated, though, I assure you.

Offensive Stats:

We'll start here, since this is where Baylor butters its bread. First things first, the primary records people want to see. Through 7 games now in the 2013 season, the holders of these records might want to start feeling a little uneasy.

For the purpose of clarity, I've now added two more subheadings at the top. The first number shows our current average in a given statistic. The next (perhaps 2) shows what we need to average over the next 6 games to break the record, which should be specified.

Baylor Points Per Game: 63.9
Needed for Total Points Record (OU 2008): 45.0 (ppg)
Needed for Points Per Game Record (Army 1944): 47.0 (ppg)

Scoring just 59 points against the Jayhawks on Saturday brought our season average down .8 from a week ago. We've got to stop slacking. The Bears have now scored 447 points on the season to our opponent's 111. The records, once again, straight from the NCAA:

MOST POINTS SCORED
-- (9 games) 504—Army, 1944
-- (10 games) 466—Oklahoma, 1956
-- (11 games) 589—Houston, 1989
-- (12 games) 624—Nebraska, 1983
-- (13 games) 652—Texas, 2005
-- (14 games) 716—Oklahoma, 2008

That last one is the one everybody cares about, and the one I focus on in these posts, at least in terms of points for the season. Commenters correctly point out that OU had an extra game to work with in 2008, but you're making a distinction others will miss. If Baylor doesn't score the 270 points necessary to beat OU's record (717 > 716), nobody will care that we beat Texas' for a 13-game season. Thankfully, 270 points over 6 games is just 45 points per game. Baylor can lose almost 25 points off its season average and still break the record.

Army's record for points per game (56.0 in 1944) is the other I have my eye on, and it came in 9 games. Had they played 13, Army would have scored 728 points. To score 729, we'll need 282 more over 6 games, for an average of 47 points per game. Baylor can break both modern records, for points in a season and points per game, by scoring fewer than 7 touchdowns per game the rest of the way.

Baylor Yards Per Game: 718.4
Needed for Total Yards in a Season (2011 Houston): 559.67 (ypg)
Needed for Yards Per Game (1989 Houston): 516.0 (ypg)

Throwing down 743 yards against Kansas raised our average from a week ago all the way to 718.4, a healthy 86 more than the second place Oregon Ducks. Over the course of an entire season, that would be a Baylor and NCAA record, breaking that of the 1989 Houston Cougars by almost 100 yards per game (the old record is 624.9).

As I mentioned a week ago, there are actually two records at play for yards, just like points. The first is the aforementioned yards per game of the 1989 Cougars, who averaged 624.9 yards per game over 11 games. The second is total yards in a season, set at 8387 by the 2011 Houston Cougars. That record came in 14 games, something Baylor can't possibly get.

To break the former record (yards per game), Baylor needs 625 yards per game, or 8125 over 13 games. With 5029 yards already through 7 games, Baylor needs just 3096 over its last 6, or 516.0, to set a new record. That's going to happen.

To break the latter, Baylor needs 3358 over its final 6, or 559.67 yards per game.

Baylor Yards Per Play: 9.1

This one is a little trickier because it depends on variables on both ends that we simply don't know yet. Without knowing how many plays or yards Baylor will eventually get, it's impossible to know where Baylor ends up. Still, the NCAA record for yards gained per play is currently held by the Hawaii's 2006 team at 8.6. Baylor has that beaten by half a yard.*

*This is what I mean. Without knowing how many yards Baylor will get or how many plays we'll take to do it, I can't say what we need to keep our average over 8.6. I'll keep an eye on it, though.

With the italicized in mind, what we can do is say that Baylor has run 555 plays so far this season, just over 79 per game. Assuming we'll play defenses better equipped to handle us that will knock that number down a bit (an assumption I could challenge reasonably, now that I think about it) to 75, we'd need to average 8.26 yards per play to break Hawaii's record. The math for that works out as:

75*6 = 450 plays remaining + 555 plays already run = 1005 total plays.
1005*8.7 (moving in tenths up from Hawaii's record) = 8743.5 --> 8744 yards
8744 - 5029 = 3715 / 450 plays = 8.26 yards per play.

If you notice, that'd be a new NCAA record for total yards by a lot.

Baylor National Ranks in Offensive Categories

Scoring Offense: 1
Total Offense: 1
Rushing Offense: 7
Passing Offense: 2
Yards/Completion: 1
Team Passing Efficiency: 1
Scoring Offense: 1
3rd Down Conversion %: 4
First Downs: 9
Fewest Offensive 3 & Outs: 1
Passing Yards Per Completion: 1

If you want to see the corresponding conference ranks, refer to our team summary.

Team Summary

Passing Rushing Total Offense First Downs Penalties Turnovers
Split G Cmp Att Pct Yds TD Att Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg Pass Rush Pen Tot No. Yds Fum Int Tot
Offense 7 21.3 31.4 67.7 415.6 3.0 48.1 302.4 6.3 4.9 79.6 718.0 9.0 14.0 14.7 1.1 29.9 7.4 68.3 0.9 0.6 1.4
Defense 7 13.4 30.3 44.3 177.3 1.0 45.6 138.7 3.0 0.9 75.9 316.0 4.2 6.7 8.0 2.0 16.7 5.6 50.4 0.9 1.3 2.1
Difference +7.9 +1.1 +23.4 +238.3 +2.0 +2.5 +163.7 +3.3 +4.0 +3.7 +402.0 +4.8 +7.3 +6.7 -0.9 +13.2 +1.8 +17.9 0.0 -0.7 -0.7
Provided by Sports-Reference.com/CFB: View Original Table
Generated 10/28/2013.

I have to remind everyone once again that Sports-Reference's numbers aren't official, which is why you might see a little bit of a disparity. They're close enough.

The Quarterbacks:

Passing
Rk Player Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
1 Bryce Petty 123 177 69.5 2463 13.9 15.7 18 1 218.8
2 Seth Russell 26 43 60.5 427 9.9 8.2 3 3 152.9
3 Levi Norwood 1 1 100.0 41 41.0 41.0 0 0 444.4
Provided by Sports-Reference.com/CFB: View Original Table
Generated 10/28/2013.

It's actually The Quarterbacks ... plus Levi Norwood. Because he threw a pass once to Jay Lee, and it was awesome. Russell's stats took a hit from this past game, when he was 1/6 passing and looked totally out of sorts. That's why he's the backup, I guess. Petty is still the national leader in passing efficiency. Projecting his numbers out over an entire season...

Passing
Year School Conf Class Pos Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
2013 Baylor Big 12 JR QB 123 177 69.5 2463 13.9 15.7 18 1 218.8
Projected Baylor 228 329 69.3 4574 13.9 15.7 33 1 218.8
Provided by Sports-Reference.com/CFB: View Original Table
Generated 10/28/2013.

Petty is also on pace to add another 11-12 touchdowns and 150-ish yards on the ground. So you're talking a 4800+ yard, 45 TD season, if all projections hold.

The Running Backs:

Rushing Receiving Scrimmage
Rk Player Att Yds Avg TD Rec Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg TD
1 Lache Seastrunk 96 864 9.0 11 96 864 9.0 11
2 Glasco Martin 69 306 4.4 5 69 306 4.4 5
3 Rashodrick Linwood 55 443 8.1 7 55 443 8.1 7
4 Devin Chafin 31 157 5.1 2 31 157 5.1 2
5 Bryce Petty 28 73 2.6 6 28 73 2.6 6
6 Anthony Webb 23 133 5.8 0 23 133 5.8 0
7 Seth Russell 21 118 5.6 3 21 118 5.6 3
Provided by Sports-Reference.com/CFB: View Original Table
Generated 10/28/2013.

Mostly because he almost never sees the ball in the second half, Lache's season numbers probably aren't where he wanted them to be. He's averaging 123.43 yards per game on the ground, #1 in the conference, and could top 1,000 yards as soon as next week. He's also on pace to finish with 20 touchdowns for the season.

Wide Receivers:

Rushing Receiving Scrimmage
Rk Player Att Yds Avg TD Rec Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg TD
1 Antwan Goodley 3 27 9.0 0 39 904 23.2 8 42 931 22.2 8
2 Tevin Reese 33 824 25.0 8 33 824 25.0 8
3 Corey Coleman 13 244 18.8 2 13 244 18.8 2
4 Levi Norwood 15 234 15.6 1 15 234 15.6 1
5 Jay Lee 15 219 14.6 1 15 219 14.6 1
6 Clay Fuller 15 215 14.3 1 15 215 14.3 1
7 Robbie Rhodes 1 8 8.0 0 9 153 17.0 0 10 161 16.1 0
8 Jerod Monk 2 53 26.5 0 2 53 26.5 0
9 Jordan Najvar 4 43 10.8 0 4 43 10.8 0
10 Brandon Brown 1 22 22.0 0 1 22 22.0 0
11 Lynx Hawthorne 1 -1 -1.0 0 2 14 7.0 0 3 13 4.3 0
12 Darius Jones 1 5 5.0 0 1 5 5.0 0
13 Cal Spangler 1 1 1.0 0 1 1 1.0 0
Provided by Sports-Reference.com/CFB: View Original Table
Generated 10/28/2013.

I doubt we get 2 1,000-yard receivers by the end of the OU game, but we could be close. Goodley, despite missing almost all of this week's contest, leads the team in receiving yards and is tied for the lead in touchdowns. He actually leads the team in yards from scrimmage (removing QBs, obviously), as well.

Defensive Stats:

This is the second week that I'll be doing this, and the improvement from last week to this is evident.

Baylor National Ranks in Defensive Categories:

Scoring Defense: 6
Total Defense: 10
Rushing Defense: 34
Passing Defense: 6
Team Pass Efficiency Defense: 3
3rd Down Conversion % Defense: 19
Red Zone Defense: 1
First Downs Allowed: 4
Team Sacks: 8
Tackles for Loss:1
Defensive 3 & Outs: 1

If you want to see the corresponding conference ranks, refer to our team summary.

Team Leaders:

Tackles: Bryce Hager (58), Eddie Lackey (52), Ahmad Dixon (40)
Tackles for Loss: Shawn Oakman (12), Jamal Palmer (8.0), Chris McAllister and Eddie Lackey (6.5)
Sacks: McAllister (5.5), Jamal Palmer (4.0), and Eddie Lackey (3.0)

As a whole, Baylor's defense has 64 tackles for loss through 7 games. In 13 last season, the Bears had 58. The 2013 team has 23 sacks, while the 2012 team had 19.

More from Our Daily Bears:

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Our Daily Bears

You must be a member of Our Daily Bears to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Our Daily Bears. You should read them.

Join Our Daily Bears

You must be a member of Our Daily Bears to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Our Daily Bears. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9347_tracker