First Look: Baylor Bears vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders

Tom Pennington

Time to move on from last week's tremendous victory to a chance on Saturday for Baylor to secure its third-straight bowl game in the Art Briles era. The opponent: the Texas Tech Red Raiders.

vs.
RV/NR/NR BAYLOR (5-5, 2-5) vs. NR/RV/NR TEXAS TECH (7-4, 4-4)
Nov. 24, 2012 | 2:30 p.m. CT
Arlington, Texas | Cowboys Stadium (80,000)

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Opponent: Texas Tech Red Raiders
Official Website: TexasTech.com
2012 Roster; Depth Chart vs. Baylor (PDF)
Last Game: 59-21 loss to Oklahoma State (Stillwater)
2011 Matchup: 66-42 Baylor win (Arlington)
SB Nation Blog: Viva The Matadors
Baylor Bears vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Game Page

Texas Tech 2012 Offensive Game Log

Passing Rushing Total Offense First Downs Penalties Turnovers
Rk Date Opponent Result Cmp Att Pct Yds TD Att Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg Pass Rush Pen Tot No. Yds Fum Int Tot
1 2012-09-01 Northwestern State W (44-6) 33 47 70.2 321 3 46 179 3.9 2 93 500 5.4 20 10 7 37 6 45 1 1 2
2 2012-09-08 @ Texas State W (58-10) 33 44 75.0 405 5 23 186 8.1 1 67 591 8.8 19 9 4 32 7 90 1 0 1
3 2012-09-15 New Mexico W (49-14) 33 45 73.3 377 6 45 325 7.2 1 90 702 7.8 20 16 2 38 8 90 1 0 1
4 2012-09-29 @ Iowa State W (24-13) 31 47 66.0 332 3 30 63 2.1 0 77 395 5.1 11 8 1 20 11 80 0 2 2
5 2012-10-06 Oklahoma L (20-41) 26 41 63.4 271 0 32 89 2.8 2 73 360 4.9 12 7 2 21 4 33 0 3 3
6 2012-10-13 West Virginia W (49-14) 33 43 76.7 508 6 29 168 5.8 1 72 676 9.4 18 12 0 30 5 41 1 1 2
7 2012-10-20 @ Texas Christian W (56-53) 30 42 71.4 318 7 27 71 2.6 1 69 389 5.6 14 5 2 21 9 90 0 0 0
8 2012-10-27 @ Kansas State L (24-55) 35 50 70.0 331 2 27 111 4.1 1 77 442 5.7 18 7 1 26 6 80 2 1 3
9 2012-11-03 Texas L (22-31) 26 44 59.1 329 1 28 112 4.0 1 72 441 6.1 16 7 2 25 9 85 0 0 0
10 2012-11-10 Kansas W (41-34) 47 61 77.0 508 4 22 63 2.9 1 83 571 6.9 23 6 0 29 7 74 0 1 1
11 2012-11-17 @ Oklahoma State L (21-59) 29 42 69.0 284 2 34 99 2.9 1 76 383 5.0 11 9 0 20 8 70 1 2 3
11 Games 356 506 70.4 3984 39 343 1466 4.3 12 849 5450 6.4 182 96 21 299 80 778 7 11 18

Defensive Game Log

Passing Rushing Total Offense First Downs Penalties
Rk Date Opponent Result Cmp Att Pct Yds TD Att Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg Pass Rush Pen Tot No. Yds Fum Int TO
1 2012-09-01 Northwestern State W (44-6) 11 21 52.4 71 0 28 13 0.5 0 49 84 1.7 4 0 2 6 8 88 0 0 0
2 2012-09-08 @ Texas State W (58-10) 13 31 41.9 141 1 30 129 4.3 0 61 270 4.4 8 7 1 16 8 94 0 2 2
3 2012-09-15 New Mexico W (49-14) 6 12 50.0 43 0 35 84 2.4 1 47 127 2.7 3 5 0 8 4 37 0 0 0
4 2012-09-29 @ Iowa State W (24-13) 10 20 50.0 73 1 38 116 3.1 0 58 189 3.3 3 9 1 13 3 32 1 3 4
5 2012-10-06 Oklahoma L (20-41) 25 40 62.5 259 2 29 121 4.2 2 69 380 5.5 15 7 0 22 5 42 1 0 1
6 2012-10-13 West Virginia W (49-14) 30 56 53.6 278 1 35 130 3.7 1 91 408 4.5 14 10 1 25 2 10 0 0 0
7 2012-10-20 @ Texas Christian W (56-53) 26 47 55.3 332 4 42 184 4.4 1 89 516 5.8 15 11 2 28 8 62 1 2 3
8 2012-10-27 @ Kansas State L (24-55) 19 27 70.4 233 2 36 193 5.4 4 63 426 6.8 13 13 4 30 5 45 0 0 0
9 2012-11-03 Texas L (22-31) 11 19 57.9 264 3 39 163 4.2 1 58 427 7.4 6 12 0 18 8 64 0 0 0
10 2012-11-10 Kansas W (41-34) 6 15 40.0 29 2 57 390 6.8 2 72 419 5.8 1 15 3 19 3 25 0 0 0
11 2012-11-17 @ Oklahoma State L (21-59) 12 22 54.5 231 4 42 256 6.1 3 64 487 7.6 8 14 1 23 5 35 0 0 0
11 Games 169 310 54.5 1954 20 411 1779 4.3 15 721 3733 7.6 90 103 15 208 59 534 3 7 10
Provided by Sports-Reference.com/CFB: View Original Table
Generated 11/20/2012.

Texas Tech has had what I would call an extremely interesting season so far. Out of the gates, Tech's defense looked much improved from a year ago as they held each opponent to 14 points or fewer and 3 out of 4 under 200 yards total. Then the Raiders suffered somewhat of a wakeup call against Oklahoma with their first loss of the season. After that, though, they looked to be back on track by routing the previously-unbeaten Mountaineers and bringing Geno Smith back down to Earth. WVU was #4 in the country at that point, and many thought the Red Raiders' rather unceremonious handling thereof might herald the arrival of a new contender to the Big 12 crown.

The first real problems of the 2012 Texas Tech season began the following week, when Tech prevailed 56-53 in a shootout in Fort Worth. Despite winning the game, Tech's defense completely fell apart against the Horned Frogs, a problem that would be repeated in the following two games against Kansas State and Texas and then again two weeks after that against Oklahoma State. Only an overtime win against a Kansas team that lost the previous week to our Bears 49-14 kept the Raiders from falling into a 4-game skid.

Tech's real problem comes from the fact that a defense that once peaked in the top-5 in both FEI and S&P+ has been falling ever since that game against West Virginia. Actually, if you start that game and come forward looking just at conference play, Texas Tech's is one of the worst defenses in the conference again this season (allowing 437.5 yards per game), only twenty yards ahead of our own (459.2) in the same time period and against mostly the same teams (they've played one more game than we have --OSU).

At the same time, the offense has actually under-performed relative to what people probably expected early in the season and fallen at almost the same rate as the defense, mostly due, I think to the fact that Tech simply cannot run the football. Just two weeks ago when I put together my preview for the Oklahoma game, Tech ranked at the top of offensive FEI with Baylor. Now they're 29th. The same thing happened in S&P+, where Tech now ranks 26th on offense. That doesn't mean they're bad-- we've been lit up by worse-- they're just not as good as they once were, to put it in terms Kenny Chesney might understand.

I'll talk more in detail about these stats starting tomorrow, but suffice to say that all of this comes together to create a situation where Baylor at 5-5 is now actually ranked ahead of Texas Tech at 7-4 in total F/+, even if only by one spot (41 to 42). FEI, for the sake of completeness, ranks us 31st to their 48th while S&P+ reverses things somewhat, putting Tech 34th and Baylor 39th overall. That's probably explains a bit why Baylor is actually favoredgoing into this game by anything from 1.5 to 2.5 points at this time.

As something of a bookend, here are Tech's rankings in absolute stats.

Category National
Rank
Actual National
Leader
Actual Conf
Rank
Big 12
Conference Leader
Actual
Rushing Offense 94 133.27 Army 369.82 10 Oklahoma St. 216.70
Passing Offense 1 362.18 Texas Tech 362.18 1 Texas Tech 362.18
Total Offense 13 495.45 Louisiana Tech 581.27 5 Baylor 565.60
Scoring Offense 24 37.09 Louisiana Tech 52.27 7 Oklahoma St. 45.40
Rushing Defense 69 161.73 Florida St. 70.64 6 TCU 98.40
Pass Efficiency Defense 45 124.22 Florida 91.76 5 Oklahoma 100.18
Total Defense 25 339.36 Florida St. 236.27 2 TCU 326.30
Scoring Defense 80 30.00 Alabama 10.09 7 Kansas St. 20.82
Net Punting 94 35.37 Louisiana Tech 43.15 9 Oklahoma St. 41.16
Punt Returns 34 10.53 Kansas St. 22.87 5 Kansas St. 22.87
Kickoff Returns 78 20.29 Rutgers 30.40 7 Kansas St. 29.54
Turnover Margin 103 -.73 Kent St. 1.82 10 Kansas St. 1.73
Pass Defense 11 177.64 Michigan 152.09 1 Texas Tech 177.64
Passing Efficiency 14 157.62 Georgia 172.06 2 Texas 165.10
Sacks T-102 1.27 Arizona St. 4.27 8 Kansas St. 2.45
Tackles For Loss 86 5.00 Stanford 9.18 6 Texas 7.50
Sacks Allowed 46 1.64 Air Force .27 8 Oklahoma St. .70

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