Time to move on from last week's tremendous victory to a chance on Saturday for Baylor to secure its third-straight bowl game in the Art Briles era. The opponent: the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
RV/NR/NR BAYLOR (5-5, 2-5) vs. NR/RV/NR TEXAS TECH (7-4, 4-4)
Nov. 24, 2012 | 2:30 p.m. CT
Arlington, Texas | Cowboys Stadium (80,000)
|Listen | Gametracker | Tickets | Notes | Blog | Gameday Central|
Opponent: Texas Tech Red Raiders
Official Website: TexasTech.com
2012 Roster; Depth Chart vs. Baylor (PDF)
Last Game: 59-21 loss to Oklahoma State (Stillwater)
2011 Matchup: 66-42 Baylor win (Arlington)
SB Nation Blog: Viva The Matadors
Baylor Bears vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Game Page
Texas Tech 2012 Offensive Game Log
|Passing||Rushing||Total Offense||First Downs||Penalties||Turnovers|
|1||2012-09-01||Northwestern State||W (44-6)||33||47||70.2||321||3||46||179||3.9||2||93||500||5.4||20||10||7||37||6||45||1||1||2|
|2||2012-09-08||@||Texas State||W (58-10)||33||44||75.0||405||5||23||186||8.1||1||67||591||8.8||19||9||4||32||7||90||1||0||1|
|3||2012-09-15||New Mexico||W (49-14)||33||45||73.3||377||6||45||325||7.2||1||90||702||7.8||20||16||2||38||8||90||1||0||1|
|4||2012-09-29||@||Iowa State||W (24-13)||31||47||66.0||332||3||30||63||2.1||0||77||395||5.1||11||8||1||20||11||80||0||2||2|
|6||2012-10-13||West Virginia||W (49-14)||33||43||76.7||508||6||29||168||5.8||1||72||676||9.4||18||12||0||30||5||41||1||1||2|
|7||2012-10-20||@||Texas Christian||W (56-53)||30||42||71.4||318||7||27||71||2.6||1||69||389||5.6||14||5||2||21||9||90||0||0||0|
|8||2012-10-27||@||Kansas State||L (24-55)||35||50||70.0||331||2||27||111||4.1||1||77||442||5.7||18||7||1||26||6||80||2||1||3|
|11||2012-11-17||@||Oklahoma State||L (21-59)||29||42||69.0||284||2||34||99||2.9||1||76||383||5.0||11||9||0||20||8||70||1||2||3|
Defensive Game Log
|Passing||Rushing||Total Offense||First Downs||Penalties|
|1||2012-09-01||Northwestern State||W (44-6)||11||21||52.4||71||0||28||13||0.5||0||49||84||1.7||4||0||2||6||8||88||0||0||0|
|2||2012-09-08||@||Texas State||W (58-10)||13||31||41.9||141||1||30||129||4.3||0||61||270||4.4||8||7||1||16||8||94||0||2||2|
|3||2012-09-15||New Mexico||W (49-14)||6||12||50.0||43||0||35||84||2.4||1||47||127||2.7||3||5||0||8||4||37||0||0||0|
|4||2012-09-29||@||Iowa State||W (24-13)||10||20||50.0||73||1||38||116||3.1||0||58||189||3.3||3||9||1||13||3||32||1||3||4|
|6||2012-10-13||West Virginia||W (49-14)||30||56||53.6||278||1||35||130||3.7||1||91||408||4.5||14||10||1||25||2||10||0||0||0|
|7||2012-10-20||@||Texas Christian||W (56-53)||26||47||55.3||332||4||42||184||4.4||1||89||516||5.8||15||11||2||28||8||62||1||2||3|
|8||2012-10-27||@||Kansas State||L (24-55)||19||27||70.4||233||2||36||193||5.4||4||63||426||6.8||13||13||4||30||5||45||0||0||0|
|11||2012-11-17||@||Oklahoma State||L (21-59)||12||22||54.5||231||4||42||256||6.1||3||64||487||7.6||8||14||1||23||5||35||0||0||0|
Texas Tech has had what I would call an extremely interesting season so far. Out of the gates, Tech's defense looked much improved from a year ago as they held each opponent to 14 points or fewer and 3 out of 4 under 200 yards total. Then the Raiders suffered somewhat of a wakeup call against Oklahoma with their first loss of the season. After that, though, they looked to be back on track by routing the previously-unbeaten Mountaineers and bringing Geno Smith back down to Earth. WVU was #4 in the country at that point, and many thought the Red Raiders' rather unceremonious handling thereof might herald the arrival of a new contender to the Big 12 crown.
The first real problems of the 2012 Texas Tech season began the following week, when Tech prevailed 56-53 in a shootout in Fort Worth. Despite winning the game, Tech's defense completely fell apart against the Horned Frogs, a problem that would be repeated in the following two games against Kansas State and Texas and then again two weeks after that against Oklahoma State. Only an overtime win against a Kansas team that lost the previous week to our Bears 49-14 kept the Raiders from falling into a 4-game skid.
Tech's real problem comes from the fact that a defense that once peaked in the top-5 in both FEI and S&P+ has been falling ever since that game against West Virginia. Actually, if you start that game and come forward looking just at conference play, Texas Tech's is one of the worst defenses in the conference again this season (allowing 437.5 yards per game), only twenty yards ahead of our own (459.2) in the same time period and against mostly the same teams (they've played one more game than we have --OSU).
At the same time, the offense has actually under-performed relative to what people probably expected early in the season and fallen at almost the same rate as the defense, mostly due, I think to the fact that Tech simply cannot run the football. Just two weeks ago when I put together my preview for the Oklahoma game, Tech ranked at the top of offensive FEI with Baylor. Now they're 29th. The same thing happened in S&P+, where Tech now ranks 26th on offense. That doesn't mean they're bad-- we've been lit up by worse-- they're just not as good as they once were, to put it in terms Kenny Chesney might understand.
I'll talk more in detail about these stats starting tomorrow, but suffice to say that all of this comes together to create a situation where Baylor at 5-5 is now actually ranked ahead of Texas Tech at 7-4 in total F/+, even if only by one spot (41 to 42). FEI, for the sake of completeness, ranks us 31st to their 48th while S&P+ reverses things somewhat, putting Tech 34th and Baylor 39th overall. That's probably explains a bit why Baylor is actually favoredgoing into this game by anything from 1.5 to 2.5 points at this time.
As something of a bookend, here are Tech's rankings in absolute stats.