Baylor Team Statistics/Projections Through 6 Games

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The Bears were back to their high-flying, high-scoring ways this past weekend against Iowa State, winning the biggest blowout in the program's Big 12 history. Unlike in years past, however, the Baylor defense has been playing a huge role.

With Baylor's 71-point outburst Saturday night, the effects of Baylor's relatively lackluster offensive performance against Kansas State have been all but erased, and the Bears are back on track to break several NCAA season records. That's where we'll start before moving into the offensive and defensive stats. I'm adding the latter because there's finally something interesting to say!

Offensive Stats:

Points Per Game: 64.7

This number is up from last week's average, exactly as you'd expect when you score 71 points in a single game. Through 6, the Bears now have 388 points overall, the second-most points in the entire country behind Oregon's 403. Oregon, of course, has played 7 games to our 6. Our per-game average is 64.7. The records, once again, straight from the NCAA:

MOST POINTS SCORED
-- (9 games) 504—Army, 1944
-- (10 games) 466—Oklahoma, 1956
-- (11 games) 589—Houston, 1989
-- (12 games) 624—Nebraska, 1983
-- (13 games) 652—Texas, 2005
-- (14 games) 716—Oklahoma, 2008

Baylor has, at most, 7 games left in the 2013 season. To break Oklahoma's record, we need 717 points total, leaving 329 left to get. The math there is pretty easy: to break the modern record for points in a season, Baylor has to score 47 points per game the rest of the way.

Army's record for points per game (56.0) is now also definitely at risk. Had they played 13 games that season (1944), Army would have scored 728 points. To score 729, we'll need 341 more over 7 games, for an average of 48.7 points per game. Baylor can break both modern records, for points in a season and points per game, by scoring less than 50 points per game the rest of the way.

Yards Per Game: 714.3

You're not going to believe this, but we managed to bring our yards per game average down even though we gained 714, but only a little. It's now 714.3, which would be a Baylor and NCAA record, breaking that of the 1989 Houston Cougars by almost 90 yards per game (the old record is 624.9).

Somehow, I've managed to get wrong in past weeks the fact that, just like points, there are actually two records at play here. The first is the aforementioned yards per game of the 1989 Cougars, who averaged 624.9 yards per game over 11 games. The second is total yards in a season, set at 8387 by the 2011 Houston Cougars. That record came in 14 games, something Baylor can't possibly get.

To break the former record (yards per game), Baylor needs 625 yards per game, or 8125 over 13 games. With 4286 yards already through 6 games, Baylor needs just 3839 over its last 7, or 548.4, to set a new record. That's going to happen.

To break the latter, Baylor needs 4101 over its final 7, or 585.86 yards per game. I'd bet heavily on that happening, as well.

Baylor National Ranks in Offensive Categories

Just from a cursory look at the offensive categories on the NCAA's awful website...

Scoring Offense: 1
Total Offense: 1
Rushing Offense: 7
Passing Offense: 3
Yards/Completion: 1
Team Passing Efficiency: 1
Scoring Offense: 1
3rd Down Conversions: 3
First Downs: 19

Team Summary

Passing Rushing Total Offense First Downs Penalties Turnovers
Split G Cmp Att Pct Yds TD Att Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg Pass Rush Pen Tot No. Yds Fum Int Tot
Offense 6 21.3 30.3 70.3 412.0 3.0 48.8 301.8 6.2 4.8 79.2 713.8 9.0 13.5 15.0 1.2 29.7 8.0 74.7 0.7 0.7 1.3
Defense 6 13.8 29.8 46.4 181.2 1.0 44.8 136.2 3.0 0.8 74.7 317.3 4.3 6.5 8.2 2.2 16.8 5.0 45.5 0.8 1.5 2.3
Difference +7.5 +0.5 +23.9 +230.8 +2.0 +4.0 +165.6 +3.2 +4.0 +4.5 +396.5 +4.7 +7.0 +6.8 -1.0 +12.9 +3.0 +29.2 -0.1 -0.8 -1.0
Provided by Sports-Reference.com/CFB: View Original Table
Generated 10/21/2013.

The dominating win over Iowa State helped all of our stats, and we are now averaging almost 400 yards more than we're giving up. NOTE: Sports-Reference's stats are not official, and there may be some discrepancies with what Baylor and the NCAA report. They're still pretty good.

The Quarterbacks

Passing
Rk Player Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
1 Bryce Petty 103 145 71.0 2033 14.0 15.8 15 1 221.6
2 Seth Russell 25 37 67.6 420 11.4 9.3 3 3 173.5
3 Levi Norwood 1 1 100.0 41 41.0 41.0 0 0 444.4
Provided by Sports-Reference.com/CFB: View Original Table
Generated 10/21/2013.

Hey, Levi Norwood makes the QB list! And wow, he's amazing! Bryce Petty is still the #1-rated QB in the country by far, and Seth Russell is still #2 in the conference by that same measure (though in a much smaller sample size). Yay! Bryce is 10th in the country in total yards per game with 345.7.

Projecting Bryce Petty out over 13 games yields the following:

Passing
Year School Conf Class Pos Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
2013 Baylor Big 12 JR QB 103 145 71.0 2033 14.0 15.8 15 1 221.6
Projected Baylor 223 314 71.0 4405 14.0 15.8 33 1 221.6
Provided by Sports-Reference.com/CFB: View Original Table
Generated 10/21/2013.

Petty's passer rating and TDs projected came down a bit since he only threw 2 TDs against Iowa State. "Only." He's still projected to smash the QB rating record for the NCAA and throw down a 4400+ yard season.

The Running Backs:

Rushing Scrimmage
Rk Player Att Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg TD
1 Lache Seastrunk 83 755 9.1 10 83 755 9.1 10
2 Glasco Martin 58 251 4.3 4 58 251 4.3 4
3 Rashodrick Linwood 46 337 7.3 5 46 337 7.3 5
4 Devin Chafin 28 158 5.6 2 28 158 5.6 2
5 Bryce Petty 24 51 2.1 5 24 51 2.1 5
6 Anthony Webb 23 133 5.8 0 23 133 5.8 0
7 Seth Russell 18 103 5.7 3 18 103 5.7 3
Provided by Sports-Reference.com/CFB: View Original Table
Generated 10/21/2013.

I don't know what to make of the fact that Bryce Petty basically hasn't run this season at all. And when he has, it hasn't been for very many yards. He's a big weapon inside the 5, as you can see from his 5 TDs, second on the team only to Lache, but he's not the running threat I expected, for sure. At least not yet.

For his part, Lache is 9th in the country, 1st in the Big 12, in rushing yards per game with 126.7.

The Wide Receivers:

Receiving Scrimmage
Rk Player Rec Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg TD
1 Antwan Goodley 37 861 23.3 8 40 888 22.2 8
2 Tevin Reese 29 714 24.6 6 29 714 24.6 6
3 Corey Coleman 11 178 16.2 1 11 178 16.2 1
4 Clay Fuller 9 171 19.0 1 9 171 19.0 1
5 Levi Norwood 11 168 15.3 1 11 168 15.3 1
6 Jay Lee 13 163 12.5 1 13 163 12.5 1
7 Robbie Rhodes 8 101 12.6 0 9 109 12.1 0
8 Jerod Monk 2 53 26.5 0 2 53 26.5 0
9 Jordan Najvar 4 43 10.8 0 4 43 10.8 0
10 Brandon Brown 1 22 22.0 0 1 22 22.0 0
11 Lynx Hawthorne 2 14 7.0 0 3 13 4.3 0
Provided by Sports-Reference.com/CFB: View Original Table
Generated 10/21/2013.

The combination of Antwan Goodley and Tevin Reese has been nothing short of amazing this season. In six games this season, Goodley has 861 yards, good enough for 4th in the entire country in total receiving yards. Each of the three above him has played 7 games or more. If his averages held, and he played 7 games, he would be third on the national list behind only Brandin Cooks (Oregon State) and Mike Evans (Texas A&M) and within striking distance of both.

Defensive Stats

This is a new category in this week's report and one for which the stats are a bit harder to find and slightly less impressive in an absolute sense. You can make the argument, however, that the progress our defense has made is even more impressive, and certainly more important to team success, than the offense.

Baylor National Ranks in Defensive Categories:

Scoring Defense: 7
Total Defense: 11
Rushing Defense: 35
Passing Defense: 11
Team Pass Efficiency Defense: 5
3rd Down Conversion % Defense: 20
Red Zone Defense: 2
First Downs Allowed: 5
Team Sacks: 4
Tackles for Loss: 2

If you want to see the corresponding conference ranks, refer to our team summary.

Team Leaders:

Tackles: Bryce Hager (52), Eddie Lackey (45), Ahmad Dixon (33)
Tackles for Loss: Shawn Oakman (11), Eddie Lackey (6.5), Chris McAllister and Sam Holl (5.5)
Sacks: McAllister (4.5), Jamal Palmer and Eddie Lackey (3.0)

As a whole, Baylor's defense has 55 tackles for loss through 6 games. In 13 last season, the Bears had 58. The 2013 team has 21 sacks, while the 2012 team had 19.

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