Baylor Offensive Statistics/Projections Through 5 Games

Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports

Even after a relatively lackluster performance against Kansas State on Saturday, the Baylor Bears' offense is still on pace to break all kinds of offense records in the 2013 season.

Last week, I spent a significant amount of time showing you all of the incredible numbers related to the 2013 Baylor Bears. Now, thanks in large part to the combined efforts of one Bill Snyder, his defensive staff, and his defense in general, those numbers have fallen off somewhat. It's still incredible, only slightly less so.

Let's start with the obvious, what everyone came to see: the records.

Points Per Game: 63.4

Scoring just under half your average for a season (35 versus 70.5) is obviously going to drag things down a bit. But it was only a bit, and the Bears are still on a record-breaking pace. Baylor has now scored 317 points on the season, good enough for an average per game of 63.4. The records, once again, straight from the NCAA:

MOST POINTS SCORED
-- (9 games) 504—Army, 1944
-- (10 games) 466—Oklahoma, 1956
-- (11 games) 589—Houston, 1989
-- (12 games) 624—Nebraska, 1983
-- (13 games) 652—Texas, 2005
-- (14 games) 716—Oklahoma, 2008

Baylor has, at most, 8 games left in the 2013 season. To break Oklahoma's record, we need 717 points total, leaving 400 left to get. The math there is pretty easy: to break the modern record for points in a season, Baylor has to score 50 points per game the rest of the way.

Army's record for points per game (56.0) is a little safer. Had they played 13 games that season (1944), Army would have scored 728 points. To score 729, we'll need 412 more over 8 games, for an average of 51.5 points per game. It's a daunting task, but it's not impossible.

Yards Per Game: 715.4

That, too, is down from the previous week, when we were averaging 779.5. That's fine, we were never going to put up almost 800 yards per game in a season.

The NCAA record for yards per game in a single season is 624.9, held by the 1989 Houston Cougars of Andre Ware. He won the Heisman that year, if you recall. To break that record, Baylor will need 630 yards per game, or 8190 yards over 13 games. I'm fairly certain that we never combined for that number in any two pre-Briles seasons. With 3577 already in the books, we need 4613 more, or 576.625 per game.

This one seems quite doable to me, but I've proven my bias before.

Team Summary:

Passing Rushing Total Offense First Downs Penalties Turnovers
Split G Cmp Att Pct Yds TD Att Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg Pass Rush Pen Tot No. Yds Fum Int Tot
Offense 5 19.8 28.6 69.2 409.8 3.2 48.0 304.0 6.3 4.8 76.6 713.8 9.3 12.8 15.2 1.2 29.2 8.4 82.6 0.8 0.8 1.6
Defense 5 13.6 30.4 44.7 190.8 1.0 47.2 155.2 3.3 1.0 77.6 346.0 4.5 7.0 8.8 2.6 18.4 5.0 45.6 0.8 1.4 2.2
Difference +6.2 -1.8 +24.5 +219.0 +2.2 +0.8 +148.8 +3.0 +3.8 -1.0 +367.8 +4.8 +5.8 +6.4 -1.4 +10.8 +3.4 +37.0 0.0 -0.6 -0.6

So we're not averaging 450 yards more than our opponents anymore, but 367.8 is still good. I will definitely take that.

The Quarterbacks:

Passing
Rk Player Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
1 Bryce Petty 80 114 70.2 1690 14.8 16.7 13 1 230.6
2 Seth Russell 20 30 66.7 381 12.7 10.2 3 3 186.3
Provided by Sports-Reference.com/CFB: View Original Table
Generated 10/14/2013.

Seth Russell's stats probably look pretty familiar because they haven't changed. For the first time this season, he didn't play against Kansas State. Petty, however, built on his remarkably successful 2013 with a standout performance. He remains the #1 QB in the NCAA by passer rating.

Projected over an entire season (13 games), Petty will do the following:

Passing
Year School Conf Class Pos Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
2013 Baylor Big 12 JR QB 80 114 70.2 1690 14.8 16.7 13 1 230.6
2013 Baylor 208 296.4 70.3 4394 14.3 16.1 33.8 1 230.6
Provided by Sports-Reference.com/CFB: View Original Table
Generated 10/14/2013.

Rounded to the nearest yard and touchdown, that's a 4300+ yard season with 34 touchdowns and 1 interception. I'd bet strongly he throws another pick. That's going to happen. But I'd also bet he starts throwing more than 23 passes a game. Those things could be related.

The Running Backs:

Rushing Receiving Scrimmage
Rk Player Att Yds Avg TD Rec Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg TD
1 Lache Seastrunk 65 643 9.9 8 65 643 9.9 8
2 Rashodrick Linwood 42 318 7.6 5 42 318 7.6 5
3 Glasco Martin 37 170 4.6 4 37 170 4.6 4
4 Devin Chafin 26 133 5.1 1 26 133 5.1 1
5 Anthony Webb 23 133 5.8 0 23 133 5.8 0
6 Bryce Petty 23 45 2.0 4 23 45 2.0 4
7 Seth Russell 14 60 4.3 2 14 60 4.3 2

I took out the guys who have only rushed a handful of times or not at all, and that includes the receivers. This time, touchdowns are included, which is good.

The Wide Receivers:

Rushing Receiving Scrimmage
Rk Player Att Yds Avg TD Rec Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg TD
1 Antwan Goodley 2 27 13.5 0 26 679 26.1 6 28 706 25.2 6
2 Tevin Reese 23 609 26.5 6 23 609 26.5 6
3 Corey Coleman 8 160 20.0 1 8 160 20.0 1
4 Levi Norwood 9 144 16.0 1 9 144 16.0 1
5 Clay Fuller 7 139 19.9 1 7 139 19.9 1
6 Jay Lee 9 103 11.4 1 9 103 11.4 1
7 Robbie Rhodes 8 101 12.6 0 8 101 12.6 0
8 Jerod Monk 2 53 26.5 0 2 53 26.5 0
9 Jordan Najvar 3 41 13.7 0 3 41 13.7 0
10 Brandon Brown 1 22 22.0 0 1 22 22.0 0
11 Lynx Hawthorne 1 -1 -1.0 0 2 14 7.0 0 3 13 4.3 0
12 Darius Jones 1 5 5.0 0 1 5 5.0 0
13 Cal Spangler 1 1 1.0 0 1 1 1.0 0
Provided by Sports-Reference.com/CFB: View Original Table

There they are, the Big Two of Baylor's WR corps, followed by everyone else. By my count, only 3 Baylor players caught passes against Kansas State: Reese, Goodley, and Norwood. Coleman would have joined them, but he dropped his only chance. He'll have to wait until the second half against Iowa State to redeem himself.

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