NCAA Tournament 2014 | Baylor vs. Wisconsin Statistical Preview

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Tomorrow is the day ...

So just how good is Wisconsin? Really good.

OFFENSE

Statistic Baylor Wisconsin
Effective FG % 51.9 53.4*
Turnover % 18.0 12.6*
Offensive RB % 40.6* 28.1
FTA/FGA 45.4 43.6
3pt% 38.6* 37.6
2pt% 48.7 51.5
FT% 67.8 74.4*
Efficiency 119.2* 120.4*
Do they have Rico Gathers? Yes No

DEFENSE

Statistic Baylor Wisconsin
Effective FG % 48.5 47.6
Turnover % 15.8 15.8
Offensive RB % 32.1 27.0*
FTA/FGA 32.1* 26.7*
3pt% 35.5 34.4
2pt% 46.1 46.1
FT% 67.3* 72.3
Efficiency 100.2 98.3
Do they have Rico Gathers? Yes No

*Top 50

OBSERVATIONS

1) Honestly, these are two extremely similar teams where Wisconsin more often than not holds a slight edge. Here is the the thing with these stats though: they include things like Wisconsin's losing 5/6 game skid back in January, as well as our abysmal performance in that month and the next as well. What is on paper is a reflection of what we have been, fortunately, Baylor looks a lot different now.

2) We cannot let Wisconsin get to the free throw line, they are good at doing it and are going to make 3 of every 4.

3) For all of the talk about how Wisconsin has five guys who can shoot the three, what might be missing is that it is not exactly impossible for Baylor to counter as we shoot it at an even better rate. The TEAM is shooting at nearly 39% which is just crazy good.

4) Wisconsin just does not turn the ball over. While Baylor has improved this over the last few weeks, that improvement must continue of we hope to take down the Badgers.

5) Bo Ryan has his guys disciplined defensively and they rarely allow offensive rebounds. Baylor faced this against Nebraska and did not seem to have an apparent difficulty grabbing offensive boards, but Wisconsin has better height.

6) Baylor has been starting fast lately and it has contributed to their amazing run. The longest time spent with less than 50 percent win probability during a game was four minutes against Creighton (the first four when the outside statistics were still heavily influencing the numbers). Baylor MUST continue this to see success against Wisconsin. Build a lead early and you cannot tell me that having watched what Baylor did to Creighton might not wear the Badgers out psychologically.

7) I will leave with this: this game is probably close to 50/50 and regardless of whether or not the game is close, this is the type of match-up that would go seven games in the NBA playoffs. It should be fun.

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