FanPost

Explaining The CFP Rankings - A Systematic Approach (Week 13)

img-cfp-selection-committee2.0.jpg

In an attempt to make sense of the College Football Playoff Committee's current rankings, it is important to look at their stated grading criteria:

When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must be considered:

  • Championships won
  • Strength of schedule
  • Head-to-head competition (if it occurred)
  • Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)

Also:

Some of the guidelines and protocols expected to be established to guide the committee would include, but not be limited to, the following:

  • While it is understood that committee members will take into consideration all kinds of data including polls, committee members will be required to discredit polls wherein initial rankings are established before competition has occurred;
  • Any polls that are taken into consideration by the selection committee must be completely open and transparent to the public;
  • Strength of schedule, head-to-head competition and championships won must be specifically applied as tie-breakers between teams that look similar;
  • Committee members associated with any team under consideration during the selection process will be required to recuse themselves from any deliberations associated with that team;

Current CFP Ranking with Significant Wins and Losses (SOS, Game Control, FPI rankings from ESPN)

1. Alabama (9-1) - 1 top 25 victory over #4 Miss State; 1 loss to #8 Ole Miss. (3, 1, 1)

2. Oregon (9-1) - 3 top 25 victories over #9 UCLA, #11 Michigan State and #17 Utah; 1 loss to #15 Arizona (16, 4, 2)

3. Florida State (10-0) - 2 top 25 victories over #22 Clemson and #24 Louisville; 0 losses (38, 34, 7)

4. Mississipi State (9-1) - 1 top 25 victory over #14 Auburn; 1 loss to #1 Bama (34, 2, 10)

5. TCU (9-1) - 3 top 25 victories over #12 Kstate, #21 OU and #25 Minnesota; 1 loss to #7 Baylor (49, 8, 11)

6. Ohio State (9-1) - 2 top 25 victories over #11 Mich St and #25 Minnesota; 1 loss to unranked VT (46, 9, 8)

7. Baylor (8-1) - 2 top 25 victories over #5 TCU and #21 OU; 1 loss to unranked WVU (59, 7, 5)

So, if you look at the top 7 (0 and 1 loss teams), the former understanding of the committee weighing teams based on top 25 wins combined with losses is completely null. By this standard, Oregon, Baylor, TCU and Florida State should be in the top 4, in that order. If you look at the SOS in parenthesis, Baylor has the worst, but this is just a ranking based on teams you have played not on how you performed against them. Game control and FPI do take this into account and rank a team on where they rank compared on how other teams would perform against the same competition. So if we look at Game Control, Baylor would be 4th behind Bama, Miss State and Oregon. If you look at FPI, Baylor is 3rd behind Bama and Oregon. Obviously head to head is being disregarded in the Committee's top 25 because TCU is still 2 spots in front of Baylor. What other criteria could they be grading on? Hmmmm. Oh, that's right. The eye test! It's interesting to note that Baylor also has the 2nd best victory in this entire group with a victory over #5 TCU, they also have the 2nd worst loss in this group, with Ohio State having the worst, yet Ohio State is still in front of Baylor.

8. Ole Miss (8-2) - 1 top 25 victory over #1 Alabama; 2 losses to #14 Auburn and unranked LSU (13, 3, 4)

9. UCLA (8-2) - 2 top 25 victories over #13 ASU and #15 Arizona; 2 losses to #2 Oregon and #17 Utah (2, 20, 13)

10. Georgia (8-2) - 3 top 25 victories over #14 Auburn, #20 Missouri and #22 Clemson; 2 losses to unranked SCar and unranked Florida (5, 5, 3)

11. Michigan State (8-2) - 1 top 25 victory over #23 Nebraska; 2 losses to #2 Oregon and #6 Ohio State (57, 6, 12)

12. Kansas State (7-2) - 1 top 25 victory over #21 OU; 2 losses to #5 TCU and #14 Auburn (41, 19, 18)

13. Arizona State (8-2) - 2 top 25 victories over #17 Utah and #19 USC; 2 losses to #9 UCLA and unranked Oregon State (18, 15, 29)

14. Auburn (7-3) - 2 top 25 victories over #8 Ole Miss and #12 K-state; 3 losses to #4 Miss State, #10 Georgia and unranked TAMU (1, 16, 6)

15. Arizona (8-2) - 1 top 25 victory over #2 Oregon; 2 losses to #9 UCLA and #19 USC (33, 40, 26)

16. Wisconsin (8-2) - 1 top 25 victory over #23 Nebraska; 2 losses to unranked LSU and unranked Northwestern (75, 17, 14)

17. Utah (7-3) - 2 top 25 victories over #9 UCLA and #19 USC; 3 losses to #2 Oregon, #13 ASU and unranked Wash State (9, 18, 28)

18. Georgia Tech (9-2) - 1 top 25 victory over #22 Clemson; 2 losses to unranked Duke and unranked UNC (40, 28, 24)

19. USC (7-3) - 1 top 25 victory over #15 Arizona; 3 losses to #13 ASU, #17 Utah and unranked Boston College (19, 10, 15)

20. Missouri (8-2) - 0 top 25 victories; 2 losses to #10 Georgia and unranked Indiana (47, 21, 37)

21. Oklahoma (7-3) - 0 top 25 victories; 3 losses to #5 TCU, #7 Baylor and #12 Kstate (7, 14, 9)

22. Clemson (7-3) - 1 top 25 victory over #24Louisville; 3 losses to #3 FSU, #10 Georgia and #18 Georgia Tech (35, 23, 27)

23. Nebraska (8-2) - 0 top 25 victories; 2 losses to #11 Mich St and #16 Wisconsin (65, 24, 31)

24. Louisville (7-3) - 0 top 25 victories; 3 losses to #3 FSU, #22 Clemson and unranked Virginia (53, 27, 34)

25. Minnesota (7-3) - 0 top 25 victories; 3 losses to #5 TCU, #6 Ohio State and unranked Illinois (67, 44, 43)

Why Minnesota is ranked with both GC and FPI being in the 40's is beyond me. Definitely the worst by a significant amount out of all the teams in the top 25. How can the committee justify Minnesota's ranking with Game Control as suggested by Jeff Long? That's right. They can't! The only thing that can describe this is the Eye Test in which I mean the test that helps boost Ohio State and then also TCU with a lucky bounce.

Edit 11/21/14 at 9:06 am CDT: I didn't point out all the discrepancies throughout the entire Top 25, but they are there in comparing top 25 wins, in comparing game control and in comparing FPI.

On the Outside Looking in:

Duke (8-2) - 1 top 25 victory over Georgia Tech; 2 losses to unranked Miami and unranked Va Tech

Why Duke isn't ranked, despite holding the head to head over Georgia Tech and having essentially similar records (8-2 vs. 9-2) both with 1 top 25 victory each, is beyond me.

Notre Dame (7-3) - 0 top 25 victories; 3 losses to #3 FSU, #13 ASU and unranked Northwestern (4-6)

LSU (7-4) - 2 top 25 victories over #8 Ole Miss and #16 Wisconsin; 4 losses to #1 Bama, #4 Miss St, #14 Auburn and unranked Arkansas

Marshall (10-0) - 0 top 25 victories; 0 losses; Plays in a Non-P5 conference.

Colorado State (9-1) - 0 top 25 victories; 1 loss to Boise State; Plays in a Non-P5 conference.

My Explanation

So, after looking at the rankings and attempting to apply the criteria listed above, it is clear that the Committee's criteria as stated above is being ignored completely and, instead, teams with comparable records are being graded on 1 primary criteria at this point:

1) The Eye Test - You may think this is something that takes place when you visit your optometrist; it is not. This is a test in which you use no true measurement. You instead make your decision based on what you think to be true without holding that belief to any empirical evidence or objective measures.

You may be asking yourself, "What type of accuracy and validity is possible with the eyeball test?" You may also be asking yourself, "But what about the criteria stated by the committee that is listed at the top of this post as stated on their website?" I wish I could explain all of these, but I can't.

Looking at the rankings above combined with the Game Control rankings, it is clear that Game Control is only being used when it is convenient for the Committee, if being used at all. I'm not sure that it is, despite Jeff Long stating that it is a factor.

So, if we rule out Strength of Schedule, Head-to-Head and Game Control, we are left with one possible criteria: The Eye Test. There is no other way to explain the current rankings outside of this premise. They have decided that this week, they prefer the Eye Test to rank teams as opposed to their stated criteria. I'll let you decide if I think personal biases play a role in the Eye Test.

Summary (Added to post 11/21/14 at 9:06 am CDT)

There is absolutely no objective reason that I see for Ohio State being ranked ahead of Baylor. There is absolutely no objective reason for Minnesota being ranked in the top 25 that I see. I know they are close, but in looking at Game Control and FPI, they are way down the list of teams that should be in the 25th spot, IMO.

The Eye Test is driving the rankings this week and my analysis of the Week 12 Rankings using a set criteria is no longer true for these Week 13 rankings.

Please leave your comments and let me know what you think.

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