Well, that was a drama-filled day with two very different results. Baylor loses to Kansas State by one in a game where shots wouldn't fall for Baylor, Kansas State did just enough on offense, and the referees had some critical no calls late in the game. Our preseason Player of the Year Candidate fouls out after another appearance where he seemed to bring more effort, but not enough to the stat sheet.
Fortunately, we have a great achievement to celebrate as the Lady Bears win over Texas Tech yesterday saw them clinch the Big 12 Title! Congratulations, ladies!
Tim wrote up a game recap last night and I would like to expand on that here now having had some time to mull over the loss. I've mentioned previously that a team who has a lot of close wins on their ledger is one that's going to lead to overreactions of their overall quality after good wins and tough losses. After good wins, you can't help but look at that shiny record and think about where this season could end up. After the tough losses, it's hard not to look back and think about how rough things would look if a few bounces hadn't gone our way.
Taking this a different, and more statistically sound direction, it's important to note that a team with many more wins than losses in close games is likely to see a regression to the mean in the their success rate moving forward. Please note that this is not to say that Baylor will lose enough close games over the next few weeks to end up close to the .500 record that one should expect. What it does mean is that Baylor is that if Baylor played close games in their last 4 regular season games, we should expect them to be closer to a .500 success rate than the .778 rate that they have been at in games decided by less than 5 points this season.
Taken individually, none of the losses outside of possibly the home loss to Kansas are ones that would significantly detract from how the Selection Committee is likely to look on our Bears. However, we do know that the Selection Committee values recent performance over early season performance, which means that Baylor is going to be under a lot of pressure to flip the momentum of losing 3 of the past 4 (and being 5-5 in the past 10). Continued play like this is going to necessitate a great run in the Big 12 Tournament just to maintain the #3 seed.
Links from around the web after the jump...
First up, coverage of the men's game...
As for the Bears, well, what's left to say? You know the drill by now: This team is as talented as any in the country. It is also every bit as suspect. For whatever reason -- growth, personality, sheepishness, your guess is as good as mine -- Perry Jones III continues to register games like this: 6 shots, 4 points, 4 rebounds, 5 fouls and zero (yes, zero) free throw attempts. In each of Baylor's past four losses, Jones posted single-digit scoring and rebounding efforts. We hate to be openly critical of a college kid, but for a player of Jones' talent, isn't that inexcusable? For a team as long and active as this one, why are the Bears so blasé on the boards, so mediocre on the defensive end?
Perry Jones disappears as K-State blocks Baylor - NCAA Basketball - Sporting News
Quincy Acy was sprawled on the floor after being knocked down while driving toward the basket. The whistle never blew.
There was no foul called on that play with 1:32 left, and No. 9 Baylor's only shot after that was Quincy Miller's game-ending miss surrounded by defenders in a 57-56 loss at home against Kansas State on Saturday.
When asked if he got hit from behind, as it appeared, Acy responded, "Yeah, and in the front."
"Yeah, I definitely got hit, but I guess the ref missed it," said Acy, who led Baylor with 14 points.
Kansas State Vs. No. 9 Baylor: Wildcats Score Road Upset Over Bears, 57-56 - SBNation.com
The Big 12 has proved to be a conference where the home team has dominated all season, but the Kansas St. Wildcats went to Waco, Texas, Saturday afternoon and upended the No. 9 Baylor Bears, 57-56....
- K-State stuns Baylor - chicagotribune.com
NCAA College Basketball Recap - Kansas State Wildcats at Baylor Bears - Feb 18, 2012 - CBSSports.com
Angel Rodriguez had 15 points and six assists and Kansas State made up for his potentially costly turnover in the final seconds as the Wildcats held on for a 57-56 victory at No. 9 Baylor on Saturday.
Game of the Day: Kansas State, perhaps you’ll no longer be underrated. That was the case at the mock selection meetings this week in Indianapolis. The Wildcats were placed into the 8/9 game, and now they’re certainly on the seven line at worst after beating Baylor 57-56 in Waco.
And now on to the Big 12 Women's Basketball Champions!
WBB Clinches Share of Big 12 Title With 56-51 Win Over Tech - Baylor Bears Official Athletic Site - BaylorBears.com
Brittney Griner and the top-ranked Baylor Lady Bears are still undefeated and already have at least a share of the Big 12 conference title.
- No. 1 Baylor women beat Texas Tech, clinch Big 12 | women, capsules, clinch - College Basketball Capsules - Women - Brownsville Herald
Texas Tech women close again vs. No. 1 Baylor | Fox News
Texas Tech has played Baylor closer than any other Big 12 team this season.