Tempo Free Basketball Review - Perry Jones Free Edition

by thermhere on Nov 30, 2011 9:01 AM CST

Before this season, we took a look at Tempo Free Statistics and how we'd use them to judge the Bears and Scott Drew this year.

Let's take a look now at how we've fared so far this season, playing without Perry Jones III, our best player.

Note: these statistics do not include last night's game against Prairie View A&M. Per usual, they are all courtesy Ken Pomeroy or pulled directly from play by play data.

Team Statistics

	Offense (rank)	Defense (rank)
Adjusted Efficiency	108.0 (47)	91.4 (24)
Effective FG%	52.4% (66)	40.2% (17)
Turnover %	23.7% (258)	26.7% (21)
Offensive Rebound %	40.1% (25)	34.1% (223)
FT Rate	49.3 (22)	32.1 (83)

Surprisingly, we've shown real improvement on the defensive end so far this season. In my opinion, and as you'll see below, Cory Jefferson has had a real effect on our interior defense, which was pretty poor last year.
As usual, our packed zone has caused teams to do a real poor job converting shots into points (eFG%). We've played a little man as well this year, and I've been encouraged by the results.
We're doing a nice job forcing turnovers, but we have GOT to do a better job protecting the ball if we want to be successful in Big 12 play. We'll see who the main culprits have been below.
The dichotomy in our rebounding is a bit confusing - we've been really good on maximizing second shot opportunities, but we've let our opponents have a great deal of them as well. This isn't an effort issue alone - a lot of teams that play 2/3 zone struggle with their guys knowing they have to block out a player rather than a spot on the floor - when you're playing mostly man and following your guy around, to some degree, it's a whole lot easier to put your butt on him and block him. Playing zone requires defenders to turn and locate the nearest man. We need to block out better on defense, period.

Player Info - This season, I've also been tracking our players when they've been on the floor. DISCLAIMER - I'm having to cull through play-by-play data at night and on the weekends to put this stuff together, so some of it may not add up perfectly, but it should be pretty close. I'm doing my best, friends.

Note that the +/- data (how many points Baylor scores - allows when a player is on the floor) is adjusted to account for the quality of competition (using their adjusted OE and adjusted DE), but is NOT adjusted to compensate for who else is on the floor. The Adj. OE/DE are also adjusted for opponent but not adjusted based on who else is on the floor.

Further note that I've bolded the leaders in each category (excluding Jacob Neubert, which should be obvious, and if it's not, just look at a) his statistics and b) his playing time %)

Player	PT%	Adj. +/-	(per min)	Usage Rate	eFG%	OR%	DR%	FTRate	Ast.%	TO%	Adj OE	Adj DE	Adj Eff Margin
Acy	74.0%	66.7	.45	17.65%	.607	9.60%	16.56%	110.7	4.17%	14.83%	112.90	87.97	24.94
Bello	32.6%	-5.6	-.09	29.68%	.417	7.69%	15.28%	54.2	9.09%	29.19%	88.71	93.57	-4.86
Ellis	23.9%	-1.1	-.02	18.78%	.357	5.26%	11.48%	114.3	13.04%	35.65%	82.26	83.49	-1.22
Heslip	64.5%	56.9	.44	15.73%	.635	0.88%	6.06%	16.2	7.32%	10.70%	108.88	84.95	23.93
Jackson	55.8%	49.7	.45	30.79%	.565	2.94%	8.73%	58.1	27.40%	24.45%	111.28	87.93	23.36
Jefferson	46.4%	25.9	.28	19.17%	.481	14.47%	20.35%	48.2	1.75%	18.83%	99.75	84.18	15.58
A. Jones	71.6%	47.3	.33	19.65%	.570	10.66%	12.41%	18	2.22%	17.85%	110.22	91.78	18.45
Miller	70.5%	71.1	.50	28.72%	.500	7.20%	13.10%	55.8	12.50%	16.54%	116.73	88.58	28.15
Neubert	2.1%	-.9	-.21	10.34%	.000	0.00%	0.00%	0	0.00%	0.00%	120.84	143.04	-22.56
Walton	58.5%	43.1	.37	30.00%	.342	5.43%	9.24%	47.3	38.36%	26.9%	107.81	86.12	21.69

Quick Glossary: PT% - minutes a player plays per game/40 min. Usage Rate - % of possessions that a player "uses" (shot/assist/turnover/free throws) when he's in the game. eFG% - FG% adjusted to properly value 3 pointers. OR% - percentage of Baylor missed shots grabbed when in game. DR% - percentage of opponent missed shots grabbed when in game. FTRate -FT attempts/Shot attempts. Ast.%- percentage of made baskets assisted on when in game. TO%-percentage of used possessions with a turnover.

Guards

It looks like Fred Ellis is helping us play some great defense when he is, but boy is he KILLING us on offense. He has to quit turning the ball over so much.
A.J. Walton - broken record, turnovers are still a problem for AJ, but he has done a better job this year than in the past of getting buckets for his teammates.
I was surprised to see Pierre Jackson's usage rate be so high, but I guess his high assist and high turnover numbers contribute to that.
Deuce Bello is our best rebounding guard, which is a skill he's not going to lose. He'll come around offensively. I'm not so worried about his turnovers or eFG%, those will improve.
Brady Heslip is as good a shooter as advertised. For those of you who think he can play point guard - look at his numbers. His profile is the epitomization of a sit on the perimeter, catch and shoot guy. He just doesn't play like a point guard needs to. He's not going to hurt us by turning the ball over though. I'm glad Coach Drew felt like he could sit a year and improve.

Wings & Bigs

Newsflash: Quincy Miller is a great offensive player. I'm a bit disappointed in how he's rebounded so far, but he's got the best Adjusted +/- and Adjusted Efficiency Margin, and his turnover numbers are pretty reasonable. I'd like his usage rate to increase relative to the other guys who've been in the lineup so far, but obviously with PJIII back, they're all going to see a decrease. He's our best player other than Perry, obviously.
Cory Jefferson's redshirt year was a real value-add for the Bears. He's rebounding the ball really well, has very reasonable turnover numbers for a big, and is really helping our defense. His FT rate is a little low, which suggests he needs to be a bit more aggressive inside.
Quincy Acy just dunks and dunks and dunks and dunks. His rebounding is worse than last year, I'm chalking that up to sample size (I hope...gulp). His efficiency margin is second best to Quincy Miller. Acy is the classic example of a great four year player, and we've benefited a whole lot from him.
I'll never be the President of the Anthony Jones Fan Club. His game is just so...different? That being said, he's doing his usual yeomen's work grabbing offensive boards.

Lineup Data - In the future (probably at the end of non-conference play, when I will post an update to these numbers), I'll include the lineup data I've been tracking. We'll look at which 5 man lineups Baylor uses most, and how they perform. The sample sizes are way too small to draw any real conclusions yet. We've only got 2 lineups that have played more than 10 minutes.

Tweet Comment 2 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Great work.

Any predictions on how the usage will change when PJIII gets back?

OurDailyBears.com

by Prashanth Francis on Nov 30, 2011 11:01 AM CST reply actions

Great stuff, Therm.

I’m hoping when we get to conference play we won’t see Ellis handling the ball so much on offense. I’m also hoping that Jackson starts and gets progressively more minutes as the season goes on.

Come talk about the Bears at www.OurDailyBears.com!

by Mark C. Moore on Nov 30, 2011 11:09 AM CST reply actions

Comments For This Post Are Closed

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

Network Bar

Our Daily Bears -

The hotter the heat, the harder the steel. No pressure, no diamonds. We compete, we win. We are Baylor.